Today war is founded on symbols. It was no accident that AQ chose the World Trade Centre on 911. Not only were Americans killed on American soil - worse than Pearl Harbour - but the WTC was THE symbol of the American way of life.
This was no accident as was the attack on Ms Bhutto.
The "plan" for 911 was to get America so angry that it would "Go to war" - by sucking America directly into conflict the US would be both enmired and weakened because it would lose support in the rest of the west and would be split in two at home. This has happened.
Now in Pakistan, a country on the edge of chaos but with many nuclear bombs, Ms Bhutto is an equal symbol. She is first of all a woman. Woman in the new theocratic order cannot have any power or voice. She is a symbol of a movement to democracy. What can be predicted?
* Musharraf will be blamed both in Pakistan and more importantly in India - we will see a lot more violence - chaos will break out
* India will have to react to the risk of chaos and the bomb - the Indian people will demand that they are being protected
* The US will be caught in a bind - how can they support Musharraf but how can they stand by and let chaos reign? The US cannot win - all their moves are bad
* Europe will wring its hands in impotence - but as the violence in Pakistan builds, Europeans will look at their expanding Muslim populations - populists will fan the flames - look to France as the tinder box -
* All the worst of how we as humans can be can be unlocked after a 60 year sleep
But why would anyone want to see the 4 horseman unleashed? It helps to recall Lenin. The early revolutionary leaders in Russia wanted to have a new democratic government - in effect they wanted to replace the Tsar with a kind of English system. Ms Bhutto = Kerensky.
Lenin had no ambitions to simply take over the existing state - he wanted to create a Theocracy - a new ideal state based on a religion. AQ have the same desire.
AQ do not want to take over the existing state of Pakistan. They want to set in motion events that will dismantle all states. They want chaos in Pakistan that will lead to conflict with India. They want the US to back order and Musharraf so that when M falls, the loss for theUS will be even greater. They want Euopeans to fear the Muslim immigrants and to have a reaction thus building up the tension inside Europe.
This creates the ideal conditions for a tribal theocracy.
I think that we have been checkmated - I am not sure what we can do but to play out the end game.
All this happens in an election year, during the greatest financial crisis since the depression, while the US forces are overstretched. Also expect oil prices to go through the roof and expect what that will do to our economy to layer onto all of this.
The one state that I think will do very well - Russia. They have the oil and the money. They also will have no compunction in cracking down on their own internal Muslim threat. China is very vulnerable. Their leaders depend on a vibrant world economy. What will happen to them as this falters? Maybe they will have to break with a history of isolation and find a foreign adventure to keep the masses happy?
The brilliance of this move is that while I think I can see how it can all turn out, I can't think of how I would do anything but follow the script that they have forced upon us. Like in 1914, the powder charges have been laid over 40 years. Now the fuse is lit - the bang is inevitable
