Russia and Georgia - Deja Vu all over again?
Losing a war is a terrible blow to a nation's psyche - look at a losing athlete at the Olympics and magnify that by a factor of x. Losing territory is as bad. Losing face in the world is the worst. Having others laugh at you and rub it in is intolerable.
So in 1918/19 with the treaty of Versailles - what looked like total victory in the War to end all wars, was in fact a process that guaranteed the next one.
The reparations, the way that Germany was treated as a leper, the loss of East Prussia all set im motion deep feelings. Deep feelings that could be exploited by a "Strong Man". Deep feelings that meant that a Strong man was what the nation desired.
The result? National Socialism and WWII.
Of course WWII took a long time to develop. So weakened and exhausted by WWI, the Great Powers appeased for many years. The League of Nations in effect was neutered by the failure of the Great Powers to come to aid of Ethiopia.
So what has this to do with Russia and Georgia? Everything!
How the west exulted at the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union did in reality lose a war - The Cold war was very real and it broke the Soviet Union.
A cursory knowledge of Russian History reminds us that the major part of the Soviet Union that broke away had been part of Imperial Russia for hundreds of years. Georgia or Ukraine being free of Russia would be like Texas going back to Mexico or becoming independent. Or Alaska becoming part of Russia. Or the west becoming part of France. You think I jest - look at the dates!
To make things worse, the Western Powers have been setting up a ring of allies around Russia.
Most nations are proud. Russia is very proud. Look at their history. Look at their accomplishment.
One of the great tragedies of the US is how history is seen by most to be bunk. Unknowingly we in the west have created a huge problem for the world by how we have treated Russia. All this rubbish about Putin as a despot. Of course he is a despot - it is exactly what the Russians have been longing for after the humiliations of Yeltsin.
Despotism is the normal for Russia. It is where the people feel most safe. Safe as a nation that can hold its head up in the world.
Not only have we done a Versailles on Russia but we have also found ourselves in the same weak position as the Great Powers found themselves in the early 1930's.
We have no will or means of standing up to a resurgent Russia. We have not the treasure - we have blown that in the Middle East and the Credit Crisis. We have not the arms - we spent this in the Middle East. We have no moral authority - we spent that too.
Worse. Putin has Europe by the balls. He is the key energy supplier for Europe.
Worse, the west has made a whole series of promises of security to the new states that we cannot keep.
Who is the great power now? Who has the money? Who has the national support? Who has the arms and the will to use them?
Our hubris has blinded us. Just as in 1989, the Soviet Union fell. So in 2008 the US and NATO stand exposed as being eunuchs.
So what to do?
I don't know - I think that we are checkmated. We have neither the power or the will.
If I was a Ukrainian, a Pole, a Latvian or in the 'Stans - I would be worried. Who said the days of empire are over?
Oh and by the way - what about those Chises Divers?