Why am I making such a deal about unemployment? Because it is the main driver for people losing their homes now. There is no remediation if a person has no income.
There are are millions of Americans in the pipeline - who have lost their jobs or who will - who will inevitably lose their homes.
But what about the "Recovery" will they not get their jobs back? Have a look at this chart form the Department of Labor and think more about will the jobs come back in time?
The first thing we see is that the wait to find a new job is now very long indeed. It is in fact "off the chart".
Now look at this chart - what I think it shows is that over the last 60 years that has been a collapse in manufacturing jobs that is systemic and long term. What is happening today is the final curtain for the idea that a person with a high school education can support themselves - that is 75% of the population in America!
This chart tells us that we are back to end of the last depression before the war made such a difference to manufacturing. It shows us that we have been in a long term systemic decline since 1980. It shows us that there is no quick or easy fix.
On a related note the Unemployment Benefit Trust Fund will run out of funds in the early part of 2010 - so those that are relying onunemployment to keep them in their house will lose that too - unless there is the politcal will to boost the fund in a major way.
So what does this mean?
I don't think that there is a simple rebound in the near future. Traditionally, the jobs come back - but we can see here that they cannot. Yes there may be Service Jobs but no one can own a house on that.I don't see any way around having to Reinvent the Economy. Find out how to return to a high employment and local focus. Easier said than done right? But there are a lot of people who have a vested interest in finding out the answers. Many of them are already reinventing local food etc. My bet is that if we open our eyes - we see see the real "Green Shoots" and they will be where people who will not give up are trying things that are radically new.