At the moment we are all treating this event as a temporary inconvenience. But what if this is not temporary? The last time this volcano erupted in 1821 the eruptions lasted for months.
So Imagine European airspace being closed until September - possible? What then?
The bad news:
- Many airlines now on the edge of failure including BA may not be able to survive. The capacity will be lost and when the skies open in the fall there will be nothing to replace it.
- London (LHR) is the hub of the global air traffic - some other place will take its place and LHR will never get all of its pre-eminence back - the need for a more diverse system will be made obvious
- Tourism in Europe will hit a blow like no other. Countries like Spain and Greece that are already weak - that also depend on Tourism will take another hit and another step to the edge or maybe over the edge
- Business travel will take a huge hit - seeing your client in person will be very hard
- Air freight will take a big knock as will the just in time aspects of air
- The banks will be put under a lot of pressure again
But the good news:
- If I was Skype, I would be thinking abut how I can make conferencing even easier - video online will be huge
- If I was a cruise line, I would be thinking about what we could do - a 4 day weekend crossing would be a great alternative - if we could test this and see what the experience could be - could mean a return to a lot of ship travel - after all travel by air is hell now anyway
- A huge boost for rail - a lot of pressure on Eurostar and the Chunnel
- More reason to think local for many things - we can see how vulnerable we are now - air today Peak oil tomorrow?
Assume a long break what do you think would be the bad and good news?
