Robert Paterson's Weblog

KETC - Mortgage Crisis - Measuring Impact

Back in May, we started to think about how a TV Station could help its city cope with the then emerging mortgage crisis. Thanks to CPB, we at KETC got our chance to test our ideas that we could.

The test is over and the results are in. A major part of the project was measurement. We knew that emotion and anecdote - powerful as it is - would not be enough.

How do we measure media? In most cases on air we can get a sense of who is watching. On the web we know exactly who is watching. As we started the experiment to see if a Public TV station could help a community help itself we had to know more - we had to know if what we did - on air, on the web, in person and by measuring itself (Remember in Quantum the act of measurement affects the measured) had an impact.

Would what we did activate action?

Would what we did change perceptions?

Would what we did have a result in improving the health of our community?

Might acting as a social catalyst be the higher goal and role for public media?

Well dear readers, the research is in - yes to all of the above.

A huge thank you to Professor Dhavan Shah and his wonderful team at the University of Wisconsin (see follow on)

One of the points that we measured was the number of calls that the United Way got from people seeking help timed against our on air pieces. Here you can see a massive bump directly related to what we did.

There is more - we found that the act of measuring/surveying had also a huge impact

What do these numbers mean? Are they good, OK or mediocre?

I have shared with you just the highlights - we have a lot more information that tells us that not only were we able to shift beliefs, motivate reaching out and action but also increase support for the station.

It is going to be fascinating to see what happens as this work spreads more broadly in the public TV and Radio world.

It's one thing to bring good content and information to the public. It is another to be able to help activate the public to take back power and control into their lives.

I feel that we are on the edge of a breakthrough - the networked world is finding its place and its organization

Doing God's Work - KETC Channel 9 and the Mortgage Crisis

As a boy, I always wanted to be part of something noble. But as a young man, I ended up being part of the Matrix instead. It has taken me nearly 15 years since leaving the Matrix to become part of something noble. My work in Public Media has taken me to that place and Jack and Amy at KETC Channel 9 in St Louis have given me that opportunity.

This video will, I hope show you what I mean. This is the great work of our time. Helping to give people back their power.

Sub Prime - Now Prime

It's not over yet - get ready for the Prime Crisis (David Hirst - The Age)

Now, as subprime fades, the prime mortgages come into play and they will extinguish subprime's significance. From $US300,000 homes, we move into the $US1 million range, now worth perhaps half that and falling. That is the cause of Dimon's grief and warning.

A defection from prime to foreclosure has begun and JPMorgan's books show the trend. Dimon and others clearly fear that this will be the driving force behind balance sheets of financial institutions in the US and the world for years to come.

As last week's run on the now bankrupt IndyMac so graphically illustrated, Alt-A is the mortgage class to watch next. This, the class between subprime and top prime, triple A, is now showing all the hallmarks of a rerun of the subprime debacle. IndyMac distinguished itself as an Alt-A provider. By early next year, we will see subprime fading from the charts only to be replaced by Alt-A foreclosures.

As we begin act three, as nervous fingers reach to the hot stove to remove the pudding, we will find the proof. That is just part of the climax. If we concur — and I do — with Bridgewater Associates' statement that subprime will soon be behind us, we must now attempt the near- impossible task of determining what is in the remaining mix.

Dimon is almost desperately signalling that Alt-A is not the only cause of coming pain by saying even prime mortgages will see significant deterioration.

As observers digested his comments over the weekend, they began looking at other classes that have shown evidence of falsification and exuberance that were evident on the upswing.

The obvious classes are commercial real estate, as mentioned, construction loans, leveraged loans, credit card and car debt, high-yield corporate debt and emerging market sovereign debt.

All this to the backdrop of scarce political leadership, the twin problems of war and oil in the Middle East and a mood on Wall Street best summed up in an email I received at the weekend from a senior staffer at one of the majors who, of his office, quoted Stalin's line: "It takes great courage to be a coward in the Red Army."

But the daddy of all the problems is still housing.

Until we see that illusive bottom, all talk about recovery and catastrophe is but talk.

So the show just must go on. It could be a very long third act indeed.