Robert Paterson's Weblog

Gas Prices - the New Election Issue - Resilient Communities

Hilary is asking for a cut in gas prices/taxes:

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton lined up with Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, in endorsing a plan to suspend the federal excise tax on gasoline, 18.4 cents a gallon, for the summer travel season. But Senator Barack Obama, Mrs. Clinton’s Democratic rival, spoke out firmly against the proposal, saying it would save consumers little and do nothing to curtail oil consumption and imports.

While Mr. Obama’s view is shared by environmentalists and many independent energy analysts, his position allowed Mrs. Clinton to draw a contrast with her opponent in appealing to the hard-hit middle-class families and older Americans who have proven to be the bedrock of her support. She has accused Mr. Obama of being out of touch with ordinary Americans who are struggling to meet their mortgages and gas up their cars and trucks.

Mrs. Clinton said at a rally on Monday morning in Graham, N.C., that she would introduce legislation to impose a windfall-profits tax on oil companies and use the revenue to suspend the gasoline tax temporarily.

“At the heart of my approach is a simple belief,” Mrs. Clinton said. “Middle-class families are paying too much and oil companies aren’t paying their fair share to help us solve the problems at the pump.”

Of course this sounds great - who wouldn't want cheaper gas and soon cheaper food? But such an act only delays the day of reckoning and makes the final price too great. My bet is that politicians will try this for a while and then of course fail. The political cost will be huge. People will feel betrayed because they thought that politicians can hold back the tide.

Both the people and the politicians hope that we can keep the kind of life that we have now. But I fear that this is no longer possible

Food will get expensive.

There is no substitute for cheap oil.

Life and every aspect of how we live will have to change. We are going to have to make our local community as self sufficient and resilient as possible.

In some ways this could be very exciting as it will mean that we all have to get together and help each other

More later

Two Americas? Stuck?

In 1850 there were two Americas. Only a brutal civil war could resolve the split.

I think that there are once again two Americas. Two Americas that cannot be reconciled.

One is an America that has been brutalized by the global economy that has stripped good jobs and services from their lives and left them maybe not bitter but certainly helpless. Is this not the America that wants a "strong" leader/parent figure - to make it all better. Bring back $60 an hour jobs. Seal the border. Drop oil prices. Save my home. Give me back my old life!

They don't want to participate in making their problems better, they want mummy to make them go away. It will be good to blame people. Look at Canada with all that water and oil taking our jobs in lumber. Look at those terrorists. Look at those immigrants.

If Mummy can't do it, they will vote for Daddy McCain.

The other America sees that these deep problems are not created or solved by one masterful parent but are complex and societal. They see that they are are of both the problem and the solution. They are inspired by a leader who asks them to step up and help. They don't need Mummy or Daddy.

But these people are not fighters. That's the point. They don't do blame and vengeance.

If I have this picture right, then Obama cannot reach the "kids".

But Mummy or Daddy cant reach the adults either. But as there are more kids than grown ups, we will get another 4 years of kindergarten and that much closer to a time when there is no solution possible for anyone.

I read the other day that "Tragedy" is when the ego triumphs over the soul.

It is surely tragic that America, founded in the idea of self reliance and the ability of the community to take charge, may fall because most Americans have become serfs looking for the big lady or man to save them,

China - Olympics - New Politics

Something huge I think is going on. Until recently nations dealt with nations.

What I am seeing is that public protest in many countries is so great that the leaders are going to have to react to China.

China can try and blame the west but its challenge will be that when most countries get involved and that the pressure comes from the people - they will be stymied.

Open Source protest!

Of course China will not back down. I think that something unknowable but profound may happen. China's leadership will be forced to take the initiative. Their own people will be soooo pissed.

Transference is the likely outcome.

My hunch is that a Taiwan adventure is likely.

Then what???

A warning to all politicians - The Lesson of Senator Obama

This is the Fibonacci Curve - it is the ideal growth to full potential curve that Nature uses in all systems. There is a lesson here for all politicians and it is established by the dynamics of the Obama campaign.

In Nature - as shown in the curve - the key to reaching your design potential as a system (as a Kid, as an oak forest, as a disease) are the "initial conditions". These are in the early part of the curve from figure 0 - 8.

If the acorn, the baby, the flu virus experience the ideal conditions and can track this tight early part of the curve, the the momentum and the trajectory give the entity an excellent chance of going the whole way.

The acorn grows to a tree and then to a forest. The baby is competent and flexible enough to reach adulthood and attract a good mate. The flu virus can get critical mass in a host.

If you don't track the curve early - as time goes on - you fail more and more. Think of a rocket leaving Earth's orbit. Too much power and you go off into space never to return. Too little and you have to fall to Earth.

So what has this to do with Politics and with Senator Obama?

Iowa and New Hampshire are the key states that set "Initial Conditions" for the race. Both are retail politics states. You have to have a great retail operation to win them. If you do, you get momentum. And what is new today in the web era - you have set up a retail fund raising process that will trump the corporate donation process.

At the heart Obama's campaign was the decision to be great at retail. At the heart of the Clinton campaign as the call to be great at corporate.

The key? The personality of the candidate. The Candidate who is good with people will be good at the web. Obama built a web based retail platform based not just on the tools but on himself. He is pre-disposed to be engaging personally. His early career has been grass roots.

Clinton is the ideal corporate candidate. She is well integrated into that world - this is where her vaunted 35 years of experience take her. Until the advent of the web - this too was a winning strategy for it cost too much in time and in money to fund raise retail conventionally.

This weekend, Senator Clinton has just fired her manager - part of the stated reason was that her manager had failed to deliver the online support that she needs. BUT - the issue is less the manager and more Senator Clinton's inability to connect personally. It is more that the initial conditions of the Clinton Campaign were based on her personality and a call to focus on the corporate. Her heart was never really in retail or the web. She is more comfortable in the cozy world of elites.

So now, as in all natural systems, the differences are widening. Small differences in the curve by figure 8 widen exponentially over time. They widen because of the shape of the curve. A small change in the curve has to be expressed by an ever wider differential over time. If Columbus had sailed 5 degrees further north, by the time he crossed the Atlantic he would have discovered Nova Scotia!

As we have seen this weekend. Obama's base in his personality and his choice to go retail early will pay off more and more. Clinton's cold personality and her choice to go corporate will fail more and more.

The key now will be momentum and money. Obama is equipped to get more of both. Clinton is going to fall back to Earth as she can regain neither - she cannot go back to her initial conditions. It is now too late for her.

I think that this is a turning point in politics. Sure money is still important but it is how and where you get it that is the key.

For the first time since the early years of the republic, it is possible with the right candidate to have a president who is not beholden to the lobbyists! It is now possible to raise more money via the web than from the lobbyists.

Such a new reality will affect in the end all politicians and all races everywhere. The web will enable retail politics again.

We are seeing early signs of this in Alberta where bloggers are giving the Premier a shellacking.

A warning to all who think that the backroom is still the key to power.

The New York Times - Paradox - Clinton Support?

I am confused. The New YorkTimes has endorsed Clinton - but many of their Columnists are not?

Today they ran an endorsement by Caroline Kennedy - it ends with these words:

I have spent the past five years working in the New York City public schools and have three teenage children of my own. There is a generation coming of age that is hopeful, hard-working, innovative and imaginative. But too many of them are also hopeless, defeated and disengaged. As parents, we have a responsibility to help our children to believe in themselves and in their power to shape their future. Senator Obama is inspiring my children, my parents’ grandchildren, with that sense of possibility.

Senator Obama is running a dignified and honest campaign. He has spoken eloquently about the role of faith in his life, and opened a window into his character in two compelling books. And when it comes to judgment, Barack Obama made the right call on the most important issue of our time by opposing the war in Iraq from the beginning.

I want a president who understands that his responsibility is to articulate a vision and encourage others to achieve it; who holds himself, and those around him, to the highest ethical standards; who appeals to the hopes of those who still believe in the American Dream, and those around the world who still believe in the American ideal; and who can lift our spirits, and make us believe again that our country needs every one of us to get involved.

I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.

Hilary is seen to be Human - The Reason behind her success in New Hampshire?

When I saw this, for the first time I was moved. Some journalists called it a stunt. Some were worried that a potential President should not get tired and weep.

My response was Wow! She can be real. I saw the person and I felt for her. I saw a better person than the plastic and machine person that her handlers would like to portray.  Well Churchill wept at the drop of a hat. I want a president who can feel and I bet so do many others. I am not saying that Hilary should now cry all the time, I am saying that she will do well to be more human.

People I have spoken to in Iowa and New Hampshire all have commented on how nice the Obama people are and how open and decent he is.

Many have commentated on the Clinton Machine and how closed and impersonal it can be. My bet is that far from alienating people, Hilary's personal moment actually connected with them. She reduced the social distance between her and the voters. I wonder, was this the moment that turned it all around for her - for she seemed to have lost all momentum and confidence.

Many have made the point that the real issue is now CHANGE. Maybe it is but I think that the nature of the CHANGE is this - Out with the Machine - In with being Human.

Is not the real change that many seek a restoration of the real versus the manufactured?

Valdis Krebs has this wonderful post today - the difference between the machine relationship and the human one.

Here is part of the post with two pictures that say it all. He is talking abut Huckabee vs Romney

He found local social networks of conservative Christians, gun owners, home schoolers and tax reformers. It was in these networks that Huckabee's message caught fire and spread to other networks that intersected with these. Soon Huckabee had large clusters of interconnected supporters, all reinforcing one another -- friends talking to friends. 

Meanwhile, Romney and the others where following common campaign wisdom and setting up phone banks, canvasing neighborhoods and spending money in the mass media -- strangers talking to strangers.

Valdis' choice of pictures really shows the difference don't they.

Is not the real undercurrent in the campaign is that the social model is showing the machine model up?

If I was advising Hilary, it would be to become more human and to make the campaign more social.

The Candidates and the Issues need to become Social Objects

The irony for me is that this is true for TV and Radio - Bring the community into your tent - more on this later

Grace

One the aspects of politics that I really hate is how it is so easy to hurt people to make your point.

Right now on PEI I see two very brave people.

Cynthia Dunsford who had the courage to call a colleague on a very tough issue that was going to make life hell for her and for him. What would you have done? She is clearly a brave person who has taken a stand when most would have wavered. I probably would have wavered.

Rory Beck for not ducking or wavering but for responding with real grace. What would you have done?  I take my hat off to Rory. What an act of courage to behave now as he is. I am sure that I would not have his grit.

The outcome for the PEI Civil service is that it is strengthened. Those who are tempted can see the risks. Those that may feel vulnerable know that they are protected. The system is strengthened.

So what is the call for a full inquiry about? Imagine that you were one of the principals. Could you bear this private moment being made public? In the future, would you come forward? Why do you and I need to know the details? There is nothing good that can come from this.

So why? Because this is how politics is played here. It's a game that hurts people. So I ask Ms Crane to explain herself.

What good do you expect to come from such an inquiry? Why do I and the public need to know the details of what happened? How will the system be improved? What would be the risks? Why should the principals who have settled their issues between them have to be judged by a third party?

I had expected better.

Women's Caucus on PEI - A focus and more civility?

All of the women MLA's on PEI including Olive Crane, a Tory, are forming a cross party caucus. (CBC)

"Stratford-Kinlock MLA Cynthia Dunsford told CBC News on Wednesday that female politicians, regardless of party, need to band together in the legislature.

"We share the same experiences, we share the same struggles, we share the same daily battles that come up that may not be specific to men," said Dunsford.

Dunsford has two goals: make provincial politics more appealing so women will run; and work with their male colleagues to affect change on the floor of the legislature. The committee will develop legislation to address issues relevant to women, if that is what is required.

Dunsford said all seven women MLAs — including Olive Crane, the one female Tory — have agreed to be members. Kirstin Lund, chair of the P.E.I. Advisory Council on the Status of Women, said a women's caucus is long overdue."

Olive and Cynthia are special people who think deeply and are very knowledgeable. As we enter a time when our problems will become life or death - the end of cheap oil - too few young - the breakdown of conventional agriculture and fishing - global warming and climate change: the old way of seeing every issue as black versus white depending on which party you belong to or of seeking to take action before you have thought it through or even asked for help!!!! will take us into the toilet.

I am hopeful that the quality of the group, its cross party structure and its size, a 1/4 of the legislature, will help us get a better perspective.

So in terms that are not PC - Go Girls Go!

A letter to our premier

Dear Pat and Robert

On Monday night one of you will be our premier for the next four years.

I know that you both "Know" that the next 4 years will be a turning point for PEI. What we choose to do about agriculture, energy, our demography may set us on a course for either greatness and self sufficiency or condemn us to the end of our society.

How you deal with this challenge will either elevate you to real greatness or condemn you. I admire your courage to step up to this challenge. I also respectfully offer you a story of another man who was faced with the same magnitude of challenge.

The statue is of the Emperor Augustus. History regards him as truly great. His greatness was more than the fact that he ruled for 41 years, but that he ended a long and savage civil war that had threatened to end Rome. During this time, bitter divisions had appeared and it had become the custom to kill your enemies.

Augustus finally ended the war at the battle of Actium. Shortly after, all the enemy armies were crushed and he stood alone.

One of you will go to bed on Monday night with the reins of power in your hands.

Augustus had a terrible choice as you do. What should he do with the legions and the men who had opposed him?

He knew that he had to give Rome back its strength. He knew that that to do that he had to have the work and the loyalty of Rome's best people.

You can imagine the meetings. His own loyalists must have urged revenge and their own interest - reward me - I deserve it.

The young man Octavian, became Augustus when he rejected that advice. Augustus chose Rome.

Instead of disbanding Anthony's legions, he chose the best. Of course he elevated his closest allies. He gave his general Agrippa his daughter's hand. But he also welcomed back many talented men from the other side. In his reign the foundation of the Empire were set.

This was not the act of a naive man.

Augustus was not a blue eyed idealist. He was a serious politician who had started out with the weakest hand of all his opponents but was such a political master that he won in the end.

His political skill enabled him to see that what was good for Rome was of course good for him and his family. By putting Rome first, he also assured his own personal interests.

So dear Premier, when you hear all your friends tell you to stiff the other people, please think of Augustus. Please think of the  scale of the  challenge that confronts us and all  society now and how only the best thinking and how only the bravest and the most dedicated will enable us to prevail.

You have 3 years to show to Islanders that you have the stuff to be elected in 2012. Simply do what we have always done will not get you there.

Please ask yourself what your children will think of you in 50 years time.

God bless you both.

Election 2008 - Gore sets the manifesto for Public Media

Here is Al Gore at his best setting out the democratic challenge for America and I think the manifesto for all in Public Radio and TV who want to make a difference

Here is Jevon's best part:

Public Radio has been one of the few defenders of discourse in America, and the burden has been tough. The failure of PBS and it’s implosion (and hopeful resurrection) is an example of what TV cannot do. Much like the printed word, Radio is a Hot Medium.

While the obsession with sounding good and having great production are worthy distractions, Public Radio needs to instead focus itself fully on aiding the recovery of the american democratic conversation.

How can this happen?

Public Radio has to stop being embarrassed every time it is attacked politically by conservatives, but it must also liberate itself from it’s image as a lefty hippie camp. Down the center of American politics is a void, and in that void sits millions and millions of teenagers, senior citizens, new immigrants, workers, entrepreneurs, mothers and everyone you can imagine.

It’s that space, the discourse with the disenfranchised rather than the punditry, that will bring reason back to America.