Can we fix Agriculture by a focus on how we do it or by seeing the system?
1. Its a system - in our role playing we can see that
trying to play one group off with another leads no where
but into blame. One of the key metaphors in TNS is the
idea of leaves versus the trunk of the tree. Avoid
working with the details and go to the heart of the
system. So what are the leaves? We focus on things like
rotation and buffer zones which all have to be done but
they don't get us to the core of the system. What is the
core of our system? That the food business is based a a
very very small group of distributors sitting in the
middle between all the farmers and all the consumers and
taking value for both sides. The result is that so long
as farmers are restricted to selling to 2 buyers, they
will be in a jam and will have to take it out on the
land.
Can you see what I am saying? It is not about farming
practice per se it is about the entire food system where
in potatoes there are only 2 processors for fries and 2
end buyers for fresh. They push back at the grower who
has to himself become more efficient and hence has to
use more capital equipment, get more land and hence have
more debt.
If you went organic and sold to Loblaws, you will end up
in the same pickle.
This is where we have got it all wrong from a policy
perspective. We focus on the "leaves" of the farm
practice. Farm practice will be vital but we won't get
a change in practice until we can change the economics
and the power issues for the farmer
2. What is the emerging new model? It is to grow,
process and sell food locally and for the grower to own
all three aspects of the process. It is in effect to
develop a direct relationship with the consumer. The
essence of the industrial model was to own the interface
- initially the production such as making steel or cars
- but more recently the real power has been in
distribution or in ideas. Think of this. A DVD player
can be bought for $50 now but a DVD film costs $20!
Production for all producers has been commoditized to
the point where no one can make money after a while as a
producer only. You can download music for free - soon
you will be able to download most movies as well.
3. What are the negative trends that will help the move
to the new model? Energy costs. Modern food systems
depend entirely on cheap energy. Fertilizer is made from
oil and gas. Farmers need lots of heavy equipment. Food
is transported a 1,000 miles before it is eaten. All the
cheap and easy oil has been found. The swing oil is
located in Saudi arabia. How hopeful are you that we
will have a stable middle east? For certain oil prices
will go up. This will push the cheap oil system to the
limit. Secondly there is the issue of food safety. Mass
produced food is inherently unsafe. Cows fed grain get
ill and have to use large amounts of antibiotics and
hormones. As we understand this we will back off. Cows
slaughtered in big factories are killed badly and
cruelly. Mistakes can contaminate thousands of tons of
hamburger or hot dogs. As these risks become more
apparent we will back off. Food additives for shelf life
like trans-fats are very bad for us. As we understand
this we will back off - and so on. In the next 3 years,
food health as driven by mass production and mass
processing will come to the fore.
The idea of growing a lot here and selling it a lot over
there - the export model - is dead. Why? because
everyone except the developing world now grows a lot.
The Americans and European farmers will fight Canadian
exports and will use any means - one sick cow, a few bad
spuds to close the border. Canada's whole food industry
is built on this model and as the idea of an open border
dies so will this business.
4. What are some trends that will help? The growth of
fully integrated local food systems such as Chudleigh's
as an example to others. Or Organic coops that also
grow, process and sell locally. The growth of the
understanding that we don't want to buy food that is
unsafe or to support companies that take advantage of
us. There will be in effect a consumer lead pull for the
new.
5. Leadership - there will be a crisis or a series of
crises. We have them here already. Wart, mad cow, lumber
etc. Poor leadership sees these as blips and hopes that
the good time will come back. Good leadership sees the
pattern and knows that we have to change. Like Ikea, the
good leader will react to the wake up call. In your
assignment be that leader. How would you get your
message across - what would you do?
6. A tip. People find it hard to grasp concepts alone.
My advice would be to build and in-cent an alternative
system on PEI and let farmers and consumers choose.
A post I used in my UPEI COurse on Business and the Natural Step
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