Robert Paterson's Weblog

Ken Dryden - Hope is not lost

Here is Ken Dryden talking with mums and with Shawn Murphy at CHANCES last Friday about Best Start.

This is not a pose. Kids have a highly accurate bullshit detector. This little girl came over, all by herself and sat right next to him and put her hand on his knee. For most of the meeting she looked into his eyes. When he left, we all knew that we had been in the presence of someone quite special. Not simply the hero of our youth but maybe the hope of our time.

I had met him at 6.15 am that day in the waiting area at Pearson. We were on the same plane to PEI. He was exhausted and had been on planes all week. He slept the whole way cramped in the tiny seats of the RJ. he must be 6' 4" and built to match. He hardly fit at all. We must have been the last place that he wanted to go to. I felt so sorry that he had to make this trip but then we needed his help so much.

So, an hour after landing, here he found himself in a room full of little ones and their mothers. The tired man I had met at the airport was gone. He radiated energy and welcome. His warmth and self deprecation took away all fear. So of course the mothers, the nurses, the teachers and the kids opened up and gave him their hearts. They told him in a away that i never could how important this was to their lives. They told him with words I could never use. They told him with a light in their eyes that I could never share.

Later this weekend at a dinner with 500 locals, he told us that he had prepared his whole life to be ready at this time to make a difference in the lives of children. He told the room of his own fears and uncertainties as a novice politician who, in spite of his briefings and all the material backing him up , had to face the fire of question period on his own and with no experience to back him up. He then likened this to being a new mother. Typical of him. This is not some blusterer. But a very humble man who can feel what it is like not to be sure.

He is quiet and soft spoken. He listens and he speaks with deliberation. He says what he means and he does not take himself too seriously. He is quite unlike any politician I have ever met. Some call him naif. I call him, refreshing. I am tired of politics as a blood sport. There is too much of importance to get done.

I get the sense that he has made a difference already and I get the feeling that, as a result of his talks with Mr Gillan, we may get the support that we need to continue Best Start

Home Heating - Oil versus Wood - A choice on PEI

Here is our basement prepared for the installation of a wood furnace - see the wood crib on the right!

Here is the wood furnace installed - see how neat it is

How do you insulate yourself from the high risk of ever higher oil prices? Our home heating bill is the largest single expense that we have. With 3 buildings totaling 6,000 square feet our bill last year was over $5,000. Heating oil last year was 42 cents a litre - it is now over 60 cents and where might this go in 5 years time? This equation faces all of us to some degree. Even the average home on PEI with 6 months of winter might pay $1,500 a year. What if this rose to $3,000 or even $4,000? This risk is real and immediate.

Our response? Go to wood. On PEI access to wood is easy and not too expensive. You can pay between $120-$150 a cord depending on the quality. Many have access to their own wood. A furnace fully installed and able to heat 3,000 square feet or more is about $4,000. Wood for the season is about $500 (Our monthly oil bill) While the cost of wood will rise, the effort of installing wood will keep the rise way below that of oil.

We will pay off the capital in just over a year and will then be seriously ahead of the game from then on.

But think of the pollution? Wood is from the current income stream of carbon. Oil and gas is from the sunk capital.

The effort is in storing the wood. I am finding that running the system is fun. We have also put the oil furnace in relay so if I don't get up early enough, the oil will kick in and give us our morning shower.

Things to pay attention to? A great chimney. Red Clay Construction are the chimney kings on PEI. A great Plumber who knows this technology back to front - Ross Petrie, brother of Ian the broadcaster is the man. Great wood - Sebastian Manago has a sustainable hard-wood operation in Kings and of course delivers seasoned wood.

I will keep you posted as to how this all works out

Has Been - What an achievement!

When I was 30 I knew everything. I knew that I was clever and that I was on the road to "success" I was immune from the problems and failures of others. I suppose that "We are the champions" might have been my song

Now I am 54, I know that life is very hard, very hard indeed. I have already made some really stupid mistakes. My sins are both of commission and omission. I have deliberately hurt others and my neglect and inattention has hurt those closet to me. I have missed what is really going on and been cocky. I have felt superior to those that are more grounded than I. Oh the list goes on and on.

I have found my new album. Has Been by William Shatner. As I hear it, this is not a novelty album. This is a true paen to life as it is and as we discover it after we have had the edges knocked off us. What a brave statement he makes. How brilliantly produced by Ben Folds.

The more I listen the more I hear myself. Thanks Bill!

Why is PEI a have not province?

We seem happy to be a "have not province" and places like Ontario are proud of being a "have province". But are we looking at the numbers correctly.

A problem with Canada is that all power is centralized largely in Ontario and Quebec. Now as we hold onto this let's look at the key flows.

From PEI
1. All interest on our debt flows to Ontario
2. All our savings end up in mainly Ontario and some in Quebec
3. All our money spent on capital items like cars, tractors, white goods, electronics go to Ontario or Quebec
4. Nearly all our gas, oil fertilizer and pesticide money leaves the province - mainly to Alberta and some to NB
5. All our electricity money leaves for NB or Newfoundland
6. Nearly all the money we spend on food goes to Ontario and NB (NG and Sobeys. The rest goes to Ontario (MCD and Wendys)
7. Half our tax money goes to Ottawa
8. Most of our brightest kids leave for Ontario
9. All our cigarette and a lot of our booze and lottery money goes out of the province - mainly to Ontario
10. Nearly all our telecommunication and entertainment money leaves the province - mainly to Ontario

What do we get back?
1. Our potato gross. No one has done the sums as to whether this is profitable at all..I cannot see how it is
2. Tourism
3. The fishery
4. Federal equalization

You don't have to be an Einstein to know that what we get is a fraction of what we pay out.

Isn't this central structure really the reason that we are a have not province? It is not that we are pathetic that we are a have not. It is because Canada is so centralized that the outlying provinces are drained of all their cash. We don't have enough cash staying at home. We are like a bath with the plug out.

Is not our main task over the next 10 years to reverse these flows? It would help to understand these flows better. The key will not be to try and improve our income - all the investment depends on Ontario. No the key is to start to cut our outgoings.

A big start is in energy and in food. If we can get there, we can then work on many of the other areas.

This is a view of PEI's energy taken 4 years ago. The costs would be much higher now. Maybe $400 million.

Imagine what it would like to have $400 million staying on the Island every year as opposed to having it drained. We spend about $200 million on food every year. So let's put this into perspective. $600 million leaves the Island every year for energy and food. $600 million is sucked out. No wonder we are a have not province!

Working on a renewable energy strategy is not a tree hugging nice thing to do. It is our only chance. Working on a local food strategy is also a key to our future. There is only a slow death in hanging on to the old.

City Filter - Keeping in touch with Home - The power of Aggregation

This is the end of 3 weeks on the road. You know when you are an Islander when you access Compass every morning from the local Stream. I am missing PEI and my friends in a surprisingly deep way.

I have also found jevon's new aggregation at City Filter a great way to stay in touch with my blogging friends on PEI. With one hit of the button I can catch up with all the news from a personal basis. Well not all the news but most.

This way of following my pals began with 84 Fitzroy. I am finding this process better for me that simply using RSS. What about you - are Island bloggers onto something with a focus on aggregation being fed by RSS rather than RSS direct?

I am an addict - are you?

One of the many interesting parts of Howard Shultz's book is how he saw that if he changed the palate of coffee drinkers to a richer and darker roast that once people were bitten, they could not go back. The real "experience" is not the place but the taste.

I am one of those that can hardly drink any other kind of coffee now. In effect I am an addict. What is the cost though of this habit? I am staying again with my sister Diana in Toronto and the first thing I noticed was her new expensive espresso machine. Why with a new Starbucks across the street had she bought this I asked. The answer was because of the new easy to reach outlet. She and her daughter Astrid had stepped up their purchases to about 6 a day. Everyday! That is about $80 a week. $336 a month. And $4,000 a year. On coffee!!!!!

A $300 machine and buying beans enables Diana and Astrid to keep their addiction at a cost that they can afford.

So what is the cost of these simple habits like coffee, smoking and even the loto?

So what do folks on PEI spend on Tims? 4 cups of Tims a day would be $5. That is $1,700 a year. A pack of smokes would be $3,376 a year. Coffee and smokes would be over $5,000 a year. What if I bought a loto ticket every week?

There is something important in this idea of lots of small purchases. They slip by us but what else would we spend so much money on? On PEI the mean wage is less than $20,000 a year.

Now if I then went to the Racino..........

The Cost of the Racino on PEI

PEI is not alone in seeing gambling as a neat way to obtain revenue. A real tax increase would offend everyone while only the "tree huggers" object to gambling.

Earl Grinols is one of the leading researchers in the world on the effects of racino's and gambling as a source of government revenue. As you will see from the link it is not a good news story. Some snips:

3-5% of players who become problem gamblers end up each costing society about $11,000. He feels that states would have to take 50% of a racino's gross to cover the social costs. In Missouri, for instance, gambling brought in $242 million in 2002. But the state lost an estimated $572 million in related business failures, crime, unemployment and other social costs.

Pathological gambling drives crime. Using Dr Grinols statistics, this means, for a population of 100,000, 772 more larcenies, 357 more burglaries, 331 more auto thefts, 12 more rapes, 68 more robberies, and 112 more aggravated assaults. So for PEI, this is what we can expect!

The bottom line is that slots drive dysfunction and very large social costs.

The advocates claim that the racinco will attract lots of tourists. The numbers show that 70% of gamblers live within 35 miles. Advocates claim that only gamblers who already gamble will attend. In South Carolina, 2 months after it banned slots in 2002, 2/3 of the state's Gamblers anonymous groups had disbanded and calls to help lines had plummeted.

In the business plan to "save our harness racing" where is this type of research?

Very light blogging

This is the end of 2 weeks on the road. I go home for a day and am off again
Sorry to be so quiet but all my energy is going into the physical world and not the blogosphere right now.
Most of my money is going to restaurants and airlines

Hope & Dina

Hope is staying with Dina in Bombay (Mumbai).

How wonderful this blogging world is that two strangers can meet like this.
Here is Dina's view

Here is how Hope sees it here and here

The Hoggs in Hampshire

My Godson, Thomas Neil is the boy on the left. He is with his Mother Clare and his sister Domini in the craft workshop where Domini makes jewelry. We are just about to sit down to watch Life of Brian.

We are eating so much that exercise has become essential. Here is Robin slumming it in the pool.

It is just before dinner and James is doing the important work of opening another bottle.

Sunday night dinner. Chicken lasagna with Domini playing the harp in her jammies in the background. Thomas Neil has just gone back to school.