Robert Paterson's Weblog

Who is Erik Prince? Tom Barnett gives an opinion based on personal experience

What is the truth about anyone? Some times it is even hard to find the truth about ourselves. One thing is surely correct - if you have never met a person - you rely only on what you hear or on your own prejudices or world view acting as a filter.

So who is Erik Prince?

Many believe his is a devil - none who state this have ever met him. Few if any who rage on and on about him have ever met anyone from Blackwater. His primary antagonist, Jeremy Scahill, has never met him.

I just don't see that position as being reasonable - hence my prior post of Rage . Why should I trust opinion that is based on no factual basis and on only a McCarthy like demonization? 

So who has met him? Who has met him that has studied what is going on in the world rather than is captured by an ideology?

Tom Barnett is a leading thinker on the conflict that is affecting us all and has some very well thought out ideas about what is really going on and what might be done. Here is his tour de force at TED on his views.

His take on what is really going on is that the process of outsourcing is well developed and has deep roots. He sees Blackwater and Erik Prince as actors in this drama and not its source. Here are 3 intelligent links to this thesis that Tom selected today:

OP-ED CHART:  “Foreign Policy Privatized,” by Allison Stanger and Omnivore, New York Times, 5 October 2007, p. A27. ARTICLE:  “Blackwater Chief at Nexus Of Military and Business:  From Scion to Navy Seals, Tied to G.O.P.,” by James Risen, New York Times, 8 October 2007, p. A6. EXCLUSIVE:  "The Man Behind Blackwater: Dutiful and intense, son of a self-made billionaire, Erik Prince is an adventure seeker and conservative true believer," by Evan Thomas and Mark Hosenball, Newsweek, 22 October 2007, p. 36.

Allison Stanger and I went to Harvard together, in both the Soviet program and the PhD program in Government. She’s now a Wellesley prof working on a book on the privatization of American foreign policy. Should be good, as this is a fascinating process we’re watching unfold.

Total federal spending on contractors has gone up from $219B in 2000 to $389B in 2005. The bulk of that is with DoD (rising from $132B to $268B, but DHS is up to $10B in 2005 and State’s up to $5.5B, so no chump change there either. Some geography (cumulative 2000-2005): →$5B in North America →just under $3B in South America →$3B for all of Africa →$30B in Europe →$64B in Asia (with most to just two countries, one imagines).

We contract in all UN member states, save three. It began to take off under Clinton and continued to grow dramatically with Bush. Smart bit by Stanger:

"Some are tempted to turn back the clock and reassert traditional government authority, denouncing the private-sector greed and the “coalition of the billing.”

But that would be a terrible mistake, for outsourcing is in part a rational response to the new possibilities of the information age.

The challenge will be to manage creative forms of collaboration between government and the private sector in ways that serve the public interest. No hyperbole there whatsoever, which is exceedingly rare on this subject.

Erik Prince won’t be the last private-sector visionary type to take advantage of this growing market niche.

Blaming his success on political ties doesn’t cut it. He’s simply a smart and very aggressive contractor with a lot of ambition and a sense that history is now on his side.

And he’s right."

The second piece quotes Robert Young Pelton (author, Licensed to Kill) describing him as a conflicted Bruce Wayne/Batman figure, but I find that a bit much, having spent a day flying down with him and Steve DeAngelis in his personal plane to Blackwater’s HQ in Moyock NC and touring it with him (flying back to DC with him driving right into some scary storm clouds with a certain élan befitting his former SEAL status), and subsequently interacting with him in business meetings.

He doesn’t strike me as conflicted whatsoever. He seems to know exactly who he is and what Blackwater can end up becoming.

So in my mind, it ain’t about demonizing Prince, but co-opting him and his entire industry into adequate levels of regulation. What is adequate? It will take more than one or two interventions to figure that out.

OP-ED CHART:  “Foreign Policy Privatized,” by Allison Stanger and Omnivore, New York Times, 5 October 2007, p. A27. ARTICLE:  “Blackwater Chief at Nexus Of Military and Business:  From Scion to Navy Seals, Tied to G.O.P.,” by James Risen, New York Times, 8 October 2007, p. A6. EXCLUSIVE:  "The Man Behind Blackwater: Dutiful and intense, son of a self-made billionaire, Erik Prince is an adventure seeker and conservative true believer," by Evan Thomas and Mark Hosenball, Newsweek, 22 October 2007, p. 36.

Allison Stanger and I went to Harvard together, in both the Soviet program and the PhD program in Government. She’s now a Wellesley prof working on a book on the privatization of American foreign policy. Should be good, as this is a fascinating process we’re watching unfold.

Total federal spending on contractors has gone up from $219B in 2000 to $389B in 2005. The bulk of that is with DoD (rising from $132B to $268B, but DHS is up to $10B in 2005 and State’s up to $5.5B, so no chump change there either. Some geography (cumulative 2000-2005): →$5B in North America →just under $3B in South America →$3B for all of Africa →$30B in Europe →$64B in Asia (with most to just two countries, one imagines).

We contract in all UN member states, save three. It began to take off under Clinton and continued to grow dramatically with Bush. Smart bit by Stanger:

"Some are tempted to turn back the clock and reassert traditional government authority, denouncing the private-sector greed and the “coalition of the billing.”

But that would be a terrible mistake, for outsourcing is in part a rational response to the new possibilities of the information age.

The challenge will be to manage creative forms of collaboration between government and the private sector in ways that serve the public interest. No hyperbole there whatsoever, which is exceedingly rare on this subject.

Erik Prince won’t be the last private-sector visionary type to take advantage of this growing market niche.

Blaming his success on political ties doesn’t cut it. He’s simply a smart and very aggressive contractor with a lot of ambition and a sense that history is now on his side.

And he’s right."

The second piece quotes Robert Young Pelton (author, Licensed to Kill) describing him as a conflicted Bruce Wayne/Batman figure, but I find that a bit much, having spent a day flying down with him and Steve DeAngelis in his personal plane to Blackwater’s HQ in Moyock NC and touring it with him (flying back to DC with him driving right into some scary storm clouds with a certain élan befitting his former SEAL status), and subsequently interacting with him in business meetings.

He doesn’t strike me as conflicted whatsoever. He seems to know exactly who he is and what Blackwater can end up becoming.

So in my mind, it ain’t about demonizing Prince, but co-opting him and his entire industry into adequate levels of regulation. What is adequate? It will take more than one or two interventions to figure that out.

What it's like living with the Grim Reaper

Our house guest for the last 5 years - said good bye yesterday and went about his business. He will be back - probably when we least expect him - but it's nice to have him out of the house for a while.

Of course, we all know that we are going to die - but most of the time - we tell ourselves that it will be later when we are very old - or it will be an accident.

Living with cancer is a bit like being on death row. The gallows are just down the hall. So every bump, new ache, feeling of fatigue is noticed. In the middle of the night, you lie awake and wonder - is it back? Then can I go through the treatment all over again - will I see a grandchild?

As a partner, I wonder how many more times will I kiss her good night. How many more coffees will I make at dawn? How many more times will she tell me how to drive? Every little shared part of life, is finite.

There are some good things about all of this - he is not all bad. When every day is numbered, they have a luster. Even winter has its magic - for what if this one was our last? Even our disagreements! The mundane chores like washing up and cooking meals become gifts of grace.

I wonder - is one of the reason so many of us are unhappy, that we forget how precious life really is. Years ago a friend who was dying of cancer was visiting a girlfriend. Her friend had a two year old and was gagging as she changed his diaper - a diaper that only a two year old can produce. She said "I would give anything not to have to do this!" My friend replied that she would give anything to be given the life to do it.

So at this time of Halloween - there is another side to the Grim Reaper - he is the harbinger of our death - but if you let him - he brings the spice of life as well.

But it's good to have him gone for a while. We can coast like most people do for a while and forget that he has an appointment with us that cannot be broken.

A Milestone

Robin has just returned from a visit to her oncologist.

She has passed the important 5 year milestone and her doctor - who has become a good friend - has told her that she would be delighted to continue to see Robin as a friend but no longer as a patient.

What a moment this is!

Of course no one is ever really cured. But statistically this is very good news.

A word of thanks to all those that have helped her.

When she was diagnosed, many well meaning friends told us that we would have to seek treatment in a more advanced centre. Well we could not have got better treatment here on PEI.

Our family doctor knew of the risks but held off for a week or so as Robin's dad was dying. After his death she arranged for Robin to meet her. It was on a Thursday. On Friday, she had seen the surgeon. On Monday she had the lump diagnosed and removed. 2 weeks later she was undergoing treatment. Our hospital is 15 minutes from the house. PEI is also blessed with a great chief radiologist and all her subsequent radiology was here as well.

The team - our GP, the Surgeon, the oncologist and the radiologist all know each other well and we had the benefit of their being able to work as a team.

The support staff - in oncology and radiology all live as neighbors and treat everyone as a neighbor - with great compassion.

This is a great day and we are truly blessed.

2008 - the year that TV will hit the iceberg

When the Titanic struck, the passengers hardly felt it. But the ship is doomed.

Here on Fast Forward is my Titanic case for the Broadcast Model for TV and Radio - I make the case that the ship has struck and that only the most prescient will get off ok.

Romance - Marriage - Divorce - It's a horse race

I have been very serious recently. Here is a very very very funny piece about a very serious part of life

Download HorseRace.mp3

Porn - The leading indicator for regular TV

It is no secret that the porn industry has used the internet well. They had the best business model for years and sales of DVD's soared. But now the porn industry is hitting the wall - the wall is that Content wants to be Free and will trend to free. So any TV/video business model that  requires the viewer to pay or wait for content will die. 

Conde Nast are running an outstanding item on this here.  The Tipping Point is one internet site. The You Tube of Porn - You Porn.

As its name suggests, YouPorn lets users upload and watch a virtually unlimited selection of hardcore sex videos for free. The user-generated clips on YouPorn—like those on YouTube, the site it mimics—range from the grainiest amateur footage to the slickest professional product.

Also, like YouTube, the site has far more traffic than income. Just nine months after going live, in September 2006, YouPorn was on pace to log about 15 million unique visitors in May, Jones told the Vivid executives, and its audience was growing at a rate of 37.5 percent a month.

Today, YouPorn is the No. 1 adult site in the world; Vivid.com, a pay site, is ranked 5,061. According to Alexa, a website-ranking company, YouPorn’s overall rank is higher than CNN.com (84), About.com (114), and Weather.com (195). (Those numbers are averages for the three-month period from mid-June to mid-September.

Public TV still hasn't got to the point where Porn was until the recent collapse in the Porn Paid Model. If you want to watch say a new Nova program - you may be lucky in a month or so to catch it online at this portal. But there is no central repository for PBS prime time content. Often you have to go to a PBS ot a Station stores and pay a lot of money for a DVD.

Oh but our material is not like Porn and it is hard to find online you might say. You are wrong. Great material is available online and it gets easier to find everyday. All it needs is for an enterprising person to:

• Focus on a niche - the more nichey/Long Tail the better
• Make it easy to find
• Add value to the item

As an experiment I have set up an alpha site I called Rob's War Stories - I really enjoy war documentaries. Every week masses of great new material in this niche comes online line. I watch very little else now.

There is a mass of material for instance on Opera on You Tube - it only needs an enthusiast to make a site out of the material and they would have a TV channel.

There is a new Kids channel just launched on these lines called Bunny Ears. They reuse older material from all over the world and through all of TV time. It is easy to use and there is a ton of added value. Please have a look - I am impressed.

So what to do?

Here is Rob's master plan for PBS and the PBS family.

Set up a master site for PBS and for all the major producers such as WGBH and Oregon. Operate an iTunes model. It would be pay but not much. The buyer has to enter their station in the buying process and the revenue is split between the station, PBS and the Producer.

The master site would make it very easy to find material and for the viewer to create in effect their own channel. The site would have community channels attached to the material - for instance IPTV have a great Quilting Show - have a sewing circle attached. Have forums attached to Bill Moyers that Bill joins. Have local forums - so all those that love Masterpiece Theatre in St Louis can have meetups in St Louis - maybe even at KETC?

The PBS strategic plan tells me that all these things are under consideration. Why not try it?????

Blackwater - Why the rage?

I have been stunned by the RAGE!!!! that I pick up when I read about Blackwater. Most of the comments are not merely angry - they scream RAGE.

Nearly all are accusatory for none of us know what happened on Sept 16. There are almost no clear facts. Many use very loaded language - even Bill Moyers whom I have admired for my entire adult life uses adjectives and nouns that he should only use if he knew what was going on and who these people were. Most of the mass of comment comes from people who have never met anyone from Blackwater or have never been to Iraq or have never heard a shot fired in their life. So their rage comes from something other than knowledge.

What is going on?

Might it be this?

This is Holman Hunt's Scapegoat. Wikipedia define a Scapegoat thus:

The scapegoat was a goat that was driven off into the wilderness as part of the ceremonies of Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, in Judaism during the times of the Temple in Jerusalem. The rite is described in Leviticus 16.

The word is more widely used as a metaphor, referring to someone who is blamed for misfortunes, generally as a way of distracting attention from the real causes. Another term for scapegoat is fall guy.

Why might Blackwater be a Scapegoat? What sin are we projecting on them?

Surely it cannot be because they may have killed people or been aggressive? That is the stated reason. But The US Military do this every week.  Here is a report (CNN) of an incident that occurred only a week after Sept 16:

Al-Maliki expressed his concerns to Gen. David Petraeus over Iraqi reports that 10 to 15 civilians were killed in the raid, spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh told CNN's "Late Edition."

The U.S. military said its ground forces are "unaware" of civilian deaths in the early morning raid that it said left 49 "criminals" dead.

"There is a great tension in the Iraqi government" over the incident, al-Dabbagh said.

During Sunday's meeting, he said al-Maliki "clearly mentioned that this excessive force ... by the Multi-National Forces used against civilians [is] not creating a good atmosphere."

An Iraqi Interior Ministry source told CNN that 15 civilians were killed -- all men -- and 52 other civilians were wounded, including women and children.

Sadr City's mayor, Hassan Adhab, told Iraqi state TV there were 10 "martyrs" -- including a mother and her three children -- and 42 others were wounded.

Coalition forces were targeting a man they said was a leader in an Iranian-funded kidnapping operation. U.S. military spokeswoman Sgt. Nicole Dykstra told CNN the target was "neither apprehended nor killed."

Adhab described a bloody scene, saying dozens of sheep were killed in the melee, and military aircraft still hovered over the neighborhood hours after the raid.

Do we hear of demands that the US Army be expelled? What outrage do we hear from our own journalists about the poor discipline or the lack of regard for Hearts and Minds?

So it cannot be the alleged "crime". So what is driving the rage - what is the sin that we project onto Blackwater? I don't know for sure - how could I - but here are some thoughts.

We live in the illusion of the "Just War". We in the west only go to war for the best of reasons. After all what was WWII all about? We forget that once a war is under way - it is only a terrible and cruel thing. We conveniently forget Dresden and the fire bombing of Tokyo.

When the American public started to realize that the Vietnam war was maybe not the Just war that it was described by the administration, the scapegoat was the Army. Worse, America spat upon the young men who returned. The sin of the nation was put upon the shoulders of the grunt.

We have recognized this. Now the one group that cannot be faulted is the military - especially the men in the field. The most un patriotic thing to do in America is to repeat the shameful treatment that was routinely handed out in the 1970's.

So as we begin to understand that war is a terrible business. As we start to know that it involves intimidation, the killing of women and children - this surely cannot be us? As our fantasy about war being a John Wayne move with no blood is reveled as just that - a fantasy. We refuse to accept this. There must be a villain that it is politically correct to blame.

There is only the contractors and in particular the ones that we know about - Blackwater.

There is perhaps a deeper sin that we them to pay for.

That is our own inability to make our state work anymore. As I have written before - a feature of the Messy World is that the friction and the self serving of our vast bureaucracies are driving the outsourcing of more and more government services.

Is this the fault of the service provider or us? Might the greatest sin of all be that our state is failing us and that we have let this happen? In every sector, private organizations are replacing the state. Some think that there is a Plot! All of us that deal with government know that there is no plot. I fight a guerilla war all the time with government agencies that purport to serve me but only serve themselves. Surely you have had the same experience? It is the size, power and friction of bureaucracies that make them so incompetent. Think about your school system - the post office - your police. Ask why so many private guards were hired in New Orleans? The issue was trust. Few trusted the NOPD.

An industry of protest and a wave of books are emerging about this trend. It is indeed a shame. But it is not the private schools fault any more than it is Blackwater's.

Rage - RAGE - is rage about its focus? Here is the test. Think of the most angry friend/relative you know. Remind yourself why they are so angry - why they rage. You will remember that it is not about the issue at hand but it is about them - they have to project their anger outward - for it would be unbearable for them to accept that the fault might might be in them.

Can America accept that war is terrible? Can America accept that the republic is dying? Could Germany accept the loss of WWI and the inflation?

Lincoln understood that sin underlies all war - he had no illusions. That is why he chose a hard man Grant to end it - to end it the only way that wars can be ended in an ocean of blood and misery. For war can only be a terrible thing - which is why we surely have to hesitate before starting one. I close therefore with his advice to the American people at a time when the most terrible things had to be done to end the civil war.

He now wills to remove, and that He gives to both North and South this terrible war as the woe due to those by whom the offense came, shall we discern therein any departure from those divine attributes which the believers in a living God always ascribe to Him? Fondly do we hope, fervently do we pray, that this mighty scourge of war may speedily pass away. Yet, if God wills that it continue until all the wealth piled by the bondsman's two hundred and fifty years of unrequited toil shall be sunk, and until every drop of blood drawn with the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword, as was said three thousand years ago, so still it must be said "the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether."

3

In the 1950's America was also swept up in a hysteria - how could we have allowed the Communists to take over most of Europe? It must be someone's fault. We had to blame someone for this gross national failure - for had we not fought a war to free Europe? It had to be the "commie bastards" at home.

Finally a brave man called the Senator out:

In an impassioned defense of Fisher that some have suggested he had prepared in advance,^[62] Welch responded, "Until this moment, Senator, I think I never gauged your cruelty or your recklessness[...]" When McCarthy resumed his attack, Welch interrupted him: "Let us not assassinate this lad further, Senator. You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?" He then left the room to loud applause from the spectators, and a recess was called.

The New Journalist

In the real New "News" paper there is surely a new kind of journalist.

What is he/she like - Here is I think a great example - Michael Yon - brought to me by Rob Lantz

The New Newspaper

Most Public TV stations and Radio stations do not do "News" - that is they don't do the local fire, the mayor's appendix and the most recent teen killed in an auto accident.

But KPBS is doing the fires in California like no new organization has yet covered a major crisis

Check it all out here on Fast Forward - see how they have used the full press of social media and their community to provide the news service that people really need.

NGO's in a Messy World

NGO's are an essential part of any attempt to restore basic services in a failed state. They are staffed by exceptional people who have given up the comfortable life that we take for granted.

A group that I admire the most is Medicins sans Frontieres - where a special breed of doctor and nurse work in the most challenging of conditions. Here is their blog aggregator for Canadian staff.

NGO's such as MSF used to be exempt from the bad guys and while their living conditions might be awful and there might be risk of disease etc, they could shield behind their name - No Longer! So how will they do their job now?

Here is part of a post from a friend of my daughter, Dr James Maskalyk, (Short Bio Here) who has recently returned from a tour in Sudan:

"are there many soldiers in the hospital?"

"only two."

you tangle blindly through the mosquito net, find your stethoscope and the pharmacy keys, walk to the car and wake the driver. you tell him that you need to go the hospital. there is a gunshot. a soldier. you are not sure why you are telling him, but you think he should know, just in case. in case of what? you don't know. in case this wasn't just an isolated, personal incident, the singular result to the equation of the number of guns in the area, multiplied by alcohol, multiplied by circumstance. in case this is the beginning of something much larger, the index case for an outbreak of gunshots that will sweep through abyei. he nods sleepily, rubs his eyes. you might have told him you were going to buy biscuits.

you touch your forehead as you climb into the car. it feels hot. you ask him to touch it. he does, and pulls his hand away, and shakes his head in disapproval. the two of you pull out of the compound, and turn right. the distance is short, and you have walked it many tmes. it takes you past one of four military compounds in the area. as you pass it, you hold your breath, your half dreams wondering what it would be to see a short, bright burst of gunfire light up your last thought.

this thought was not always so close. once, being a humanitarian carried with it a certain privilege: if you declared yourself as one, you were not a target, not even on the battlefield. it is why henri dunant started putting red crosses on the backs of the people dragging soldiers off the field in 1864, and why those of us working for MSF get teased by other NGO's for the logo'd t-shirts we wear everywhere. it marks us. it says we are here only to help, we are not part of the war; we take care of the sick. in some countries, this "humanitarian space" is all the room we have.

it is being slowly eroded. particularly in the past five years. several MSF workers were killed in afghanistan in 2005. a young woman working for MSF on her first mission, elsa serfass, was killed last month in central african republic. in recent years, it appears a shift has occurred. the red crosses and msf logos no longer provide as much protection. some don't see them, and to others, they look like bullseyes, a sign of wealth, and of resources. more worrisome, they can mark us as a potential pawn in a larger game. with one swift stroke, they drive help away from their enemy. combine this with a deft political turn, and they can cast blame on the other side and manipulate public sentiment.

once this humanitarian space falls away, it cannot be rebuilt. the newer wars will have no memory of it, and for those of us whose only protection is this invisible margin of safety, we are left defenseless.

this space is not only for us. it provides room to breathe for the innocent on either side. one of the reasons the roads are safe at night is because if they are not, if we are threatened, we will leave. the hospital, once full of armed soldiers, is now a place where people feel safe because every time someone refuses to check their grenade at the door, we evacuate. all of us. we demand the space, and with it comes air for everyone.

it is why we continue to refuse association with governments and military, anyone with guns. it is why we feel that "militarizing humanitarian corridors" is a contradiction, and resist it. we need people to remember that space. desperately. and not just for us.

so, that is what you think, gravel crunching under your slow tires, as you pull up to the gate. the hospital seems quiet, not the usual mêlée of multiple casualties. you grab two paracetamol from the nursing room and swallow them, and walk into the emergency room. a soldier has been shot in the arm and chest. by his brother. an outcome of an argument. though this is not good news, not for either of you (couldn't it have been the foot?), it is not the sign of a hell of a lot imminent bad news. you insert a chest tube, repair his arm, and because he won't stop bleeding, you begin the frustrating call for blood donors.

it is a long night, but in it, you find all the space you need.

NGO's are now targets. Here is Kilcullen on why:

The days of using the logo as a shield are over. NGO's in failed states are NOT NEUTRAL - they pose a real threat to the bad people whose interest is at least in the status quo.

So now what? Most are now pulling out of the worst places where they are needed most.

How will NGO's fulfill their mission? Have they been driven from the field?