Robert Paterson's Weblog

Messy World - Financial Markets - Insurers

At the root of the mess is how all the subprime credits have been structured. The complex securities all have a slice of "Insurance" that makes them prime.

The fear that is gripping Wall Street is that the key insurers are going down - this has the effect of taking all the category down.

Bond insurers could face more pressure today as the stock markets open. Just after midnight Thursday, MBIA reported that it lost $2.3 billion, or $18.61 a share in the fourth quarter, compared with profit of $181 million, or $1.32 a share in the quarter a year ago.

Together MBIA and Ambac guarantee more than $1 trillion in municipal, corporate and mortgage debt and carry a mark of distinction — a triple-A credit rating — a boast that even the most well-heeled of corporations like I.B.M. cannot make.

It's not over by a long shot

The Messy World Arrives on PEI

As the ME crews work shift after shift, they must be reaching a point where they cannot do much more - the task ahead of them is daunting. I think that the army will have to be called in. Apparently they are now on call.

It's quite an experience to find out how dependent we are on electric power and how vulnerable our infrastructure is.

We are not alone. In China, millions have been stranded by a snow storm. Power will be rationed for years in South Africa. The Internet is 60% down in the middle east and India.

Unstable weather and years of underinvestment in infrastructure are combining to create conditions that threaten our way of life.

Emergency - The Key is "Communications that work"

Enough already! Almost all of PEI has been out of power for a few hours and we are hanging on by a thread. We are having a foretaste of the kind of events that will become more common as global warming affects our weather.

As in war - the most important thing is to know what is going on. For those who have to help to now and for the rest of us poor folks who are in the dark, under water, coming down with bird flu etc.

It is now possible for all of us to know a lot - if we understand the new media. It's possible to be able to know a lot very quickly and for very little cost. We could have a great system up and running in 2 days.

Hope is not a plan and the key is to be able to keep everyone in the loop. Here is a list of things that have been proved to work.

Key Assumption - Assume very little power available and that phones can be lost too - most people have cell phones. The cell phone in the developing world is THE link. So any plan has to put the cell phone in the centre of the mix. But how do you reach thousands of people using text messaging on their phones

Key Assumption - PEI has one of the highest uses of Facebook in the world - Facebook can be set up to message the members of groups - set up a PEI EMS Facebook Group and encourage people to join - make it socially competitive - the power outage now will help - the kids will get their parents and grandparents on.

Key Asumption - Broadcasting on the radio every 30 minutes reaches not many. KPBS used Twitter during the California fires and were updating every few minutes. Twitter can use sms and hence is very robust and it is two way -so the Wisdom of Crowds can be leveraged.

Key Assumption - Use the wisdom of crowds - Members can not only receive but contribute  on Facebook and also using Google Maps as KPBS harnessed in the Fires last summer in California. Google Maps are the ideal vehicle for bringing it all into a coherent picture. The KPBS map became the resource for all involved.

Key Assumption - Link your services into the same system. The San Diego FD was interlocked into the KPBS system. The LAFD has been using Twitter and Google maps for nearly a year now

Key Assumption - Every other community in North America faces the same kind of risk - Learning from each other and being able to lend help will be essential. As ME is finding, its crews are going to run out of gas soon. As in war, you can be sure that you have to have a strategic reserve of knowledge and resources - this can only come from outside and you can only access this if you have the relationship's already established - remember when PEI went to Toronto to help with the snow? Social Media can help form these links.

Key Assumption - Let's get on with it and pull this together!!!!!

See follow on for examples in full - None of this costs real money - it just takes will

Emergency Services on PEI

22,000 households - all of Western PEI and 1/3 of all households are without power. I hear that Maritime Electric are fully deployed with about 10 crews.

Time for the Government to get involved!

I have been playing with the math - how many poles are out? Probably hundreds. How many trees down on lines - hundreds? 10 crews? This is going to take a week or two.

What if we have more ice tonight and lose a chunk of Queens or Kings? There is no reserve.

Time for the government not only to get involved with the work at hand - but also to think more about their entire plan for EMS.

You can't predict what will happen but you can predict that shit will happen. We are not ready and we don't have either the concept or a plan for coping well.

Quality for TV and Local Content - & What about Learning?

One of the issues that many of concerned about public radio and TV have discussed is how to activate local issues. How do we get our community involved in such a way as we can cut through the partisanship and the barriers to make a better place?

A friend told me the other day that his station was on the edge - how could they get more content when they had no money? How could they get more support?

Many of my friends are in despair about the state of education but know of no way of getting traction.

So my friends here is a video - produced by Prof Michael Wesch and 200 students at Kansas State that offers an answer to these important questions - quite one of the best films I have ever seen. Nearly 7,000 comments on the film!!! Here is a link to Prof Wesch's site. Thanks to Johnnie for finding it.

The meaning of UFIT - Stephen

"Change" Everyone is talking about it. But real change - changing who you are and changing your world - well few have done this. Please watch Stephen. There is a moment in the middle of this video that took my breath away. You will see transformation - a true moment of mystery and courage. I will say more about Stephen and UFIT later - but first see what the new power in the world really is. What is your reaction? Please tell. The film was made by Patti Larsen

I want to interview people on Video - what camera?

Time to learn a vital skill for our time - how to make simple films.

Mainly I want to interview people and show where they live and work.

I have an Apple environment and will start editing in the iMovie or YouTube world - nothing fancy.

What would be a good camera for me to learn the basics on that would not demand a lot of me?

I have a Canon Power Shot A520 still point and shoot with video feature that will take video plus some sound - is this enough (With a big card? I can get 2 Gigs for very little money on Amazon) or should I get a pure video camera as well?

The New York Times - Paradox - Clinton Support?

I am confused. The New YorkTimes has endorsed Clinton - but many of their Columnists are not?

Today they ran an endorsement by Caroline Kennedy - it ends with these words:

I have spent the past five years working in the New York City public schools and have three teenage children of my own. There is a generation coming of age that is hopeful, hard-working, innovative and imaginative. But too many of them are also hopeless, defeated and disengaged. As parents, we have a responsibility to help our children to believe in themselves and in their power to shape their future. Senator Obama is inspiring my children, my parents’ grandchildren, with that sense of possibility.

Senator Obama is running a dignified and honest campaign. He has spoken eloquently about the role of faith in his life, and opened a window into his character in two compelling books. And when it comes to judgment, Barack Obama made the right call on the most important issue of our time by opposing the war in Iraq from the beginning.

I want a president who understands that his responsibility is to articulate a vision and encourage others to achieve it; who holds himself, and those around him, to the highest ethical standards; who appeals to the hopes of those who still believe in the American Dream, and those around the world who still believe in the American ideal; and who can lift our spirits, and make us believe again that our country needs every one of us to get involved.

I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.

Rob's Quote of the Day - Jan 27 2008

From Randall Stross at the New York Times - talking about the Kindle

The object we are accustomed to calling a book is undergoing a profound modification as it is stripped of its physical shell.

Kindle’s long-term success is still unknown, but Amazon should be credited with imaginatively redefining its original product line, replacing the book business with the reading business.

Scale and Cut - A failed Stategy? - What about "More for Less"

How do we cope in tough times?

The merger of Sears and Kmart seems to be failing - Edward Lampert's strategy - get big and cut cut cut. Those who do this in newspapers seem also to be be failing - expenses go down but so does the product and so customers leave. By getting scale by using leverage, they also get the leverage on the way down.

Most people still think about their business in a mechanical sense. Build up the structure via debt and make the structure more efficient by cutting. I don't think that this will work anymore - we see it failing all over. But as it is the only way we know how to cope in tough times, we keep trying it in hope that this time it will work.

Is there another way? Is there, in particular a way for my friends in Public TV and Radio - who never had much to start with to cope and even thrive in the tough times to come?

Let's think of "More for less".

Get scale not through using leverage but by using the power of networks. Get "More" by using the power of the network effect to bring resources into the organization from your customers and your peers.

Use the web to be the "More". Here is where you can tap into the power of the Network effect - here you have access to infinite "shelf space" and to huge customer input and resources.

I am going to follow this post up later today with a case study of how the Canadian Banks did this 20 years ago - resulting in system volume rising exponentially  - 90% of transactions occurring outside the  branches - with most of the work that supports this volume done by the customers themselves or automated.

Watch for the Interac Story soon