Here is Diane Mermigas talking about the commercial networks - is this the same for NPR and PBS?
The Big 4 broadcast networks’ probable loss of substantial upfront ad dollars raises pressing questions: Where will as much as an estimated $1.5 billion in spending go instead? How will their corporate parents offset such losses? How quickly can they master multi-platform monetization of increased TV viewing on smart phones and other smaller screens?
The broadcast networks’ most formidable challenge is no longer prime-time supremacy–it is adequately pricing and recouping the ad dollars and licensing fees in the digital media spectrum. The broadcast networks’ parent companies may be unable to generate enough digital and cable network revenues to collectively offset upfront and scatter market ad losses. In that case, deep cost cuts are inevitable, as are other fund-raising efforts–such as selling equity stakes in prime-time programming blocks to outsiders, as the CBS-Time Warner CW Network has done with independent studio Media Rights Capital.
Worst-case estimates call for CBS and ABC each to decline as much as 15% in upfront ad sales (to about $2 billion in revenues each), and for NBC and Fox each to be down about 13% in upfront ad sales (to about $1.6 billion each). The ad dollars could shift to cable, online and connected mobile devices, or be withheld by reticent advertisers. Even with CPMs up as much as 4%, this might not make up the fiscal difference.
Anticipated ad spending declines and shifts will reflect the long-suffering loss of broadcast network TV viewers, the crippled economy and the allocation of growing portions of ad dollars to other platforms. There also is the threat of a Screen Actors Guild strike in July and uncertainty about the amount of makegoods the broadcast networks owe to advertisers from missed ratings guarantees in the season just ending. In late March, the networks were down as much as 7% collectively–ABC was down 18% and CBS off 12%, according to Morgan Stanley. They track the continued decline in prime-time ratings: 15% for ABC, 11% for Fox, 8% for CBS and flat for NBC.
