Robert Paterson's Weblog

There are Travel Agents and then there is Trufflepig - The Mumbai Trip

What if you were on vacation last week in Mumbai - who would you call? What about your family back in your home country? How would they know what was going on. How could a foreigner in a city in crisis find a local network that could provide the kind of support that would really help.

What about the Embassy? The Consulate? The Travel Agent?

What is required is an organization that has made its local networks the foundation of its service. Trufflepig, my son in law's travel business, is such an organization. Here is the proof of the pudding:

Hello Charlie
I’ve been meaning to send an email.This is the first opportunity.

Above all I want to express my sincere thanks for your personal concern and professionalism related to our episode here.

I am presumptuous enough to speak on behalf of the group here to say we are all sincerely appreciative of your interest and diligence and support.

My children (A***** and Cor****) are highly complimentary, and very grateful, for your timely updates. It was very comforting to them in a time of high anxiety.
 
Ironically, our group did not feel overly threatened or even overly concerned, despite being close to the heart of the terrorism.

Certainly we felt it, and were on high alert, but unlike everyone on that side of the ‘pond’, we had the benefit of first hand knowledge here and could keep our situation in perspective. For those there in Canada, unfamiliar with Mumbai and getting only the CNN view, the situation was likely more terrifying.

In any case, we got through that travel ‘hiccup’ without too much problem, thanks in great part to your guidance from afar, and the good management assistance of your aide-de-camp, G*** T****t.
 
Our group got out of Mumbai before sunrise, checked out of a dark hotel via flashlight, and whisked to the airport.

Now of course we are at the Malabar in Fort Kochin and quickly getting back into the rhythm of the trip.

It has been nothing short of outstanding so far (even our shortened, chaotic visit to Mumbai)
The people here at this hotel have already been more than hospitable and generous, due in no small part to your arrangements and their obvious respect for you.

So much thanks again as we carry on this marvellous adventure. We will talk to you soon, maybe share a Kingfisher, when we return to Toronto.
Sincerely
H J and All

Now that is heartfelt. Not only did the family in Mumbai feel supported but so did their family back home. Charlie and his team have been on the phone the entire period of the crisis.

I offer this up not simply because I am proud of my son in law, but because his approach to travel is also part of the revolution in all business that I see unfolding. The new business puts the relationship and the personal first - this is where the value if found.

All business is undergoing the same kind of wrenching change. My bet is that "Commodity Travel" - price driven and set up by people who know nothing about where you are going and who have no local organization on the ground will have a tough time. Look at all those in Bangkok right now who are "lost" and "helpless". All they have is a cheap ticket and their hotel reservations. Also what did they experience in Thailand anyway: a beach, a few good meals?

The essence of Truffelpig is found in the metaphor. Pigs find precious Truffles that others cannot. Trufflepig is 3 young men who are themselves real "Travelers" and who were trained at B & R, has developed personal relationships with the "Pigs" of each area - people and local organizations that really know the place.

This is the experience that they offer their clients - to be able to visit a place supported by insiders. To surround the traveler with the experience of true local expertise and the feeling of being cared for as a person.

It all works because of the use of the network effect. The 3 founders look after their networks and they themselves have years of personal experience of the places.

Everyone wins. The local's get a flow of thoughtful guests. Truflepig do not have to "own" the costs of the network. The Guests get an unparalleled experience and the security of knowing that they have a deep back up.

Trusted Space comes to Travel!

Why America's Military is in such a mess

Why has America got the most expensive military in the world and yet cannot deploy the right force to do the job that confronts it?

This story has the answer to this question - its budgets are controlled by its suppliers and its suppliers have bought the leadership.

Light Relief - Beware of the Doghouse!

Now this is

1. Really funny
2. True - that is why it is funny
3. Really clever - there is a kicker here - can you spot it?

Feeling Nostalgic - Amesbury School

I cant help recalling  that Cassandra's ability to see the future of Troy was a curse. Some kind readers like Tom - keep telling me to buck up and see the bright side. On some days I can. But this week, with Mumbai, I have hit a bit of a low.

To divert myself I am reading Nigel Hamilton's 3 volume biography of Monty. This is a Homeric story - Monty is an Achillean Character whose personality is his greatest asset and his greatest vice.

I have been pulled back to Monty not only because Hamilton has written an epic but - like Hamilton himself who met Monty as an 11 year old boy - I met Monty several times as a boy and fell under his spell.

A widower, Monty had a son, David. David went to the same prep school as I. In 1942, as Monty was called to Africa where he would make his name, David had left Amerbury and went to public school. Monty was determined that his mother would not get her hands on his son and at the last minute asked Major Reynolds, the headmaster of Amesbury to be David's guardian.

Amesbury became Monty and David's home for the rest of the war. Monty had dinner with the boys the night before D Day. After the war he kept his command caravans on the property.

I arrived in 1959. Monty lived close by near Hindhead. He liked to come and see us. We experienced first hand the Monty Briefing. We all thought he was the most special person that we could ever meet.

I don't know what David thought of Amesbury. He had a very tough childhood. Amesbury was his only real home. It was mine too. We were both emotional orphans of parents who were never available.

Nearly 60 now - the loss of a real home gnaws still. But my appreciation of Amesbury - the people, the place and the way of life grows.

So I am comforted by reading about Monty's determination, drive and clear thinking in terrible times. I am comforted by my own memories of being happy as a boy.

Last year I wrote 4 posts about Amesbury. Here they are again - in tribute to those wonderful people who gave me my best start in life.

• Amesbury - the people, the place and the life
• Amesbury - the books
• Amesbury - the food
• Molesworth - the prep school experience

Now I am really worried

Thanks JP

And you thought I was a pessimist!

The Financial Vortex is a cogent view of what is ahead. Here are 6 predictions for the years ahead

Doc Searls offers up his views here too

Terror - Mumbai - 911 - The Emotional Battlefield

As a boy, I used to box. I was a thin boy and faced much heavier and stronger opponents. I learned though that if I could get a good punch in early to my opponents nose that he would invariably lose his temper and flail away at me. I usually won those fights. My opponent had allowed his anger to blind him.

I see a pattern here between 911 and the events unfolding in Mumbai as I write these words.

The choice of targets are deeply symbolic and are designed to provoke the emotional immune system that reinforces the collective fears and prejudices of the host. It's an attack on the immune system.

The aim is to so provoke, by the selection of the target and by the manner of the attack, as to have the host lose all sense of proportion for its response. So like an auto immune disease, we then destroy ourselves by our over reaction.

The simmering distrust and hatred between Muslim and Hindu boils over. The selection of British and Americans keeps Obama from offering the hand of peace. The choice of targets ruins the Indian Tourism industry for an extended period.

This is the Art of War in action. They are using our own energy to destabilize our own world.

If the general is not victorious over his anger and sets them swarming like ants,

One third of his officers are killed

and the walled city not uprooted

This is the calamity of attack

Art of War Chapter 3 - The Denma Translation

Look at what 911 did along these lines. We have lost much of our liberties and the use of law itself. We have lost much of our moral compass. In waging war on a peacetime society, we have lost much of our economy. In giving up so much of our power to the executive, we have unbalanced the constitution.

The challenge is that democratic states like America or India are especially vulnerable. We can rely on some hot head to call for vengeance and the people to rush to agreement. It was the same in 1914 - Belgian Babies and later crucified Tommies - were stories that created the will to fight a total war.

Can the leaders see the risk of being manipulated and hold back from creating a storm of rage in India?

One hundred victories in one hundred battles

is not the most skillful

Subduing the other's military without battle is

the most skillful

I pray that wisdom supersedes mere reaction.

Pensions in the Post Financial World

What if you thought you had a pension and then you did not have one?

What if your employer could not meet their commitment? What if the government could not bail your pension out? At the moment, unless the markets spring back, your employers ability to meet their commitment is in jeopardy. if the bailouts don't work, so are the finances of government.

For you to be sure of your pension - what we are going through has to correct itself in less than 5 years. That is no time at all in pension terms.

Why? Because of the Baby Boom. In 5 years time, the leading edge of the boomers will be retired. In 2017 the core will be 65. Never in human history will there be so many old people. Never will there have been so few of working age to support us all.

Here is another way of seeing this - (Stats Canada)
This unique demographic event was going to place an immense strain on us as a society anyway. But if there is no financial capacity to pay out the pensions - what are we going to do?

We are going to have to get reconnected as older people to our families and to our community. We are going to have to offer our kids and their generation value.

Hey this is what people have done for millions of years. It is only in the last 75 that we thought that we could be looked after by anyone other than our family as we got older.

What does this mean in practice?

If you are estranged form your kids - think about this.

If you have no kids - get attached - do you have god children?

If you live far away from your kids - think about this.

If you plan not to work until you cannot - think about that too

Can you help your kids with non cash work so that they have more freedom to earn? Like help with their kids?

Have no close friends - think about this.

Have no ties to your community - think about this.

Help no one - think about this.

In short, the best way to "retire" without a pension is to get a real life again - be an active participant in your family and in your community. Be a contributor!!!! Good for your health as well.

As in so many other parts of our life, the takeover of our society of the financial has cut us off from being in authentic human relationships.

Your Pension - The Next Bailout?

Is your pension safe?

In the US many pension funds are already severely impaired. The law demands that the employer has to make up the shortfall. BUT here is the challenge. To do this many employers will have to impair their day to day business. Here is a snip from a recent letter to Congress from Employers who are facing this paradox:

The drop in the value of pension plan assets coupled with the current credit crunch has placed defined benefit plan sponsors in an untenable position. No one who drafted the recently enacted defined benefit plan funding rules anticipated the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and a once in a hundred years “credit tsunami.” Yet, at a time when companies desperately need cash to keep their businesses afloat, the new funding rules will also require huge, countercyclical contributions to their pension plans. Consequently, many companies will divert cash needed for current job retention, job creation and needed business investments, and instead contribute the cash to their pension plans to fund long-term obligations due many years after the current market conditions return to normal. We do not believe that, in enacting the Pension Protection Act of 2006 (“PPA”), Congress intended companies to be forced to make this kind of decision. Unless the funding rules are modified, they will cause an increase in unemployment and slow economic recovery.

For example, a Florida company with four defined benefit plans faces an increase in required contributions of more than 2100%, from $673,000 in 2008 to an estimated $15,186,000 in 2009. The company’s consultant states that in light of this increase, “this client, like many others, may be forced to freeze their plans and may have to eliminate jobs to afford those contributions.” Another larger company has estimated that its 3-year contribution for 2008-2010 will increase from $36 million to $2.18 billion, an increase of almost 6000%.

We are in no way advocating an overhaul of the PPA funding changes. Rather, we urge Congress to consider making technical corrections to the PPA, that we believe implement Congressional intent, and adopting temporary provisions that deal with the financial crisis.

It's a lose lose deal.

Here is the underlying problem that worries me.

Since the end of WWII, the correct prevailing wisdom is that, over time, equities offer the best over all return. This has been true. While there have been corrections - the worst being 1974 - 1984 - riding out corrections - averaging down - making regular investments - AND being heavily weighted in equities has been both profitable and prudent.

In Canada, the routine mix has been a low of 60% equities - high of 70% versus 40 - 30% Bonds.

Most Canadian Pensions will be in this range now. My sense is that US pensions may well have been more aggressive and had a higher % in equities.

What Pension Trustees are doing now is following historic procedure. They will be averaging down - by making their regular investments of new money in the assets that they still like - thus working over time to a lower average price - ready to take advantage of the inevitable rebound.

All through the nearly 60 years since WWII this was the right thing to do.

BUT - if I and the few of us who think that we are not experiencing a normal correction but a conflagration - then this is absolutely the wrong thing to do.

Here then is the really hard part. When everyone thinks the same way, then it is impossible to take action that contradicts the Conventional Wisdom.

So if I and the few of us who feel that we face Armageddon are right, the Trustees and the Fund Managers will wake up too late - just as the regulators on Wall Street have.

If we are right then the next big bailout will be for pensioners.

So, there is nothing that you or I can do that will influence this possible risk until it is too late. But there is action that we can all take: don't take your pension for granted. Please think about it as likely but not certain.

Do your best to consider how you might live without it. What could that be? See my next post "Pensions in the Post Financial World"

Here is a link to the pdf of the letter to Congress so you can see the dire position that pensions are in already in the US
Download Funding - Joint Letter to Congress 111808

More for Less - The PEI Bio Alliance - A Chaord in Action

Now is the time that all enterprises will seek to get "more for less". For most people this merely means cuts.

But effective use of networks is where I think the true value lies. I predict that at the heart of the crisis will be the failure of the machine model and the rise of the Network.

My regular readers know that I think the world of one of my clients - the PEI Bio Alliance. This is one of the most effective Chaords in existence today - where a "Facilitating Structure" works to enhance the connections between a diverse group of partners - Government, Academia and Business in the field of Bio Science.

Here is a link to a quick story of who why what and how.

But what I really wanted to share with you today are the results. PEI, with a population of 140,000, is punching way above its weight.

CHARLOTTETOWN, PEI -- Spending on research and development has increased by almost 9 percent in the Maritime provinces between 2004 and 2005, the Maritime Provinces Higher Education Commission announced today, November 25, 2008.

Between 1996 and 2005, expenditures on research and development in the Maritimes increased by 80 percent to $770 million from $424 million. Expenditures increased $63 million from 2004.

Of the $770 million, Nova Scotia at $464 million accounted for nearly 60 percent of that total, followed by New Brunswick at $243 million then Prince Edward Island at $63 million. Research and development funding in Prince Edward Island increased nearly 54 percent between 2004 and 2005. This increase appears to be largely due to an investment in bioresources by the National Research Council. During the same period, funding increased by 8 percent in Nova Scotia and 5 percent in New Brunswick.

Up 54% vs the rest at an average of 9%.

Before the Bio Alliance, each part of the research sector on PEI was both separate, under scale and saw itself as competing with the others. Sound familiar? There was no way that there could be sustained and real growth. But as a network - now look at what can be done.

I offer up this story in the hope that you may also be part of a potential Chaordic Network.

Visa has been called "a corporation whose product is coordination." Hock calls it "an enabling organization." He also sees it as living proof that a large organization can be effective without being centralized and coercive. "Visa has elements of Jeffersonian democracy, it has elements of the free market, of government franchising -- almost every kind of organization you can think about," he says. "But it's none of them. Like the body, the brain, and the biosphere, it's largely self-organizing."

Could public radio and TV reconfigure themselves along these lines?

Could each station create a chaord in their state? At KETC in St Louis, we are doing just that as we work with more than 20 NGO's to help St Louis cope with the mortgage crisis.

How about you? Could your enterprise do better by going down this road?

The PEI Bio Alliance and KETC will be speaking at the Boyd Conference on PEI on Dec 6-7 as we grapple with how to empower the small and the local.

We will be webcasting their talks.