My good friend Gabe sent me this email today:
robert - in the very initial stages of planning a self sufficient
community for somewhere over in asia, in case shit goes down. do you
think that much of the resources of such a community would need to be
used for defense? think fortified kibbutz.
i
am reminded of that JG Ballard memoir about when he was imprisoned as a
kid outside shanghai. as bad as things were in the japanese-run camp,
there was always a crowd of chinese at the gate trying to get in --
because conditions outside the wire were much worse.
The Kibbutz was a answer to a problem that we might all share soon.
When there is no effective government. When there is no real state. When there is no official security. When there is no secure money. How do you not only survive but thrive. You band together in an intentional community. You in effect go back to the core human organization - the Tribe. In the Dark Ages it was the Monastery. In pre-war Palestine, it was the Kibbutz.
I wonder if we can learn a lot for the Kibbutz model and apply it well at home?
It has been an eye opener for me this Christmas to have many of my extended family living here with us. In effect we had a mini tribe of 8 adults and one baby! I could feel what it might be like to make our little place here very viable. We had enough labour to get almost any task done. And the baby was in heaven and so was the mother who was helped in spades.
What do you guys think? What do feel about bringing back the Tribe/Kibbutz as way of getting through what might come?
This is not an academic question for me. I think that we have only the year of 2009 to plan and then act before it may be too late to get ahead of what will come.
I fear that by 2010 we will see that our national and local governments cannot provide the key services that we ask of a government - sound business conditions, sound money and security. The structures and the leadership that we have all relied on for hundreds of years might be fatally weakened in 2009.
2009 will be the transition year. By the end of 2009 we will see more clearly that the bailouts will have failed in their intent. They will not have helped people stay in their houses, buy houses or buy other things. The economy will be even more moribund. If you think I exaggerate - here is an article form the WSJ on the plight of small business at the end of 2008. Thanks John Robb
In 2009 the pain will hit local governments hard. Their tax bases are too fragile being largely based on sales tax and property tax. All the local services that we count on will start to crumble. How will schools cope? Social Services? Maintenance? Police?
In 2009 we will start to see major strains in the global food system and real shortages. The just in time food system itself will be under huge strain.
But most important, what little confidence there is in our financial system will be lost. The Chinese will have to spend their savings on Chinese local problems as millions are laid off in the factories. There will be no one left to buy all the Treasuries needed to keep the system going and to finance the bailouts.
Here from The Mediavore is a quick view of the jawdropping numbers involved:
Linda Bilmes provides the day’s jaw-dropping moment on The Takeaway.
The national debt has risen from $5.7 trillion in 2001 to $10.7
trillion today, and when you add in the bailout (thus far), Bilmes says
the total is closer to $11.5 trillion. Even children can figure out
that we’ve amassed more debt in the past 8 years than in the previous
225 years. Bilmes names three profound errors: The Bush administration
led two rounds of tax cuts; the administration spent more than a
trillion dollars on the wars in Afghanistan and Iran, borrowing all of
it; and spents billions on defense that so far has been of little
benefit. Bilmes reminds us that the $1 trillion we spent on Iraq will
result in trillions of additional expenditures on equipment
replacement, Veteran’s benefits and other costs in the coming decades.
Yes, you should listen to this, no matter how depressing you find it. Listen
The foundation of the world system - the US Dollar and the US Credit - will be lost.
With the foundation gone how can the weakened parts still stand?
I can't see how this cannot happen. I may be off by a year or two. But I can't see how the dollar can hold its value. I can't see the world system remaining viable with the failure of the dollar. I cant see how our current leaders can do anything to stop this.
I hope I am wrong. Challenge me please.
But if I am right, then we will be looking at the very conditions that made Kibbutz's a good idea or the Monasteries in the Dark Ages. When there is no state only a community at scale and with intention can offer us respite.
Only local structured communities can rebuild the resilience needed to get though the hollowing out of the state.
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