Anyone wanting to get a feel for what really confronts the US and the Nato alliance in Afghanistan should read Steven Pressfield's book "The Afghan Campaign". The book is not about today but about Alexander's campaign. But it can inform today.
Alexander tried it all. Including genocide. It all failed. He could not extricate himself without losing face. And for him to lose face would have been the end of him. Being a genius, he found the Roxanne option. This is what I think President Obama needs to consider. Not marrying an Afghan Princess but using a game changing and face saving way of altering everything.
The current debate - more troops or the same is missing the point. There is no way that there will ever be a government in the country that can be looked at as being anything other than what it is - the typical government of a failed state. There can be no victory for "democracy". Troop levels mean nothing in this context other than adding more will only make the ultimate failure worse and further isolate the President at home and abroad. Keeping them the same will only give his opponents the cross to hang him on when that too fails.
It's not just the administration or the democrats that are at risk - so is America.
The Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan showed the world that the USSR was now a Paper Tiger. The defeat of the French in 1745 was the decisive blow to its prestige and its credit that lead to the revolution. The defeat of Russia by Japan undermined the Tsar in the same way. The Boer War, although technically a victory, showed that Britain could be beaten. The stakes are huge!
Defeat not terror is the risk for America. So what is the Roxanne Option?
It is all about how the place really works. It's all about money and drugs.
Pressfield is clear. You can always do a deal with a tribe. Tribes understand power and honor and business. You cannot tell them to be different. They respect above all real power. Not the power of the weapon but real power that is related to prestige and to things that people really need.
The real power in Afghanistan is all about money. The money there - vast sums - comes from the opium harvest.
Our obsession with the War on Drugs is our weakness. The Roxanne Option - the Game Changer - is to take over the drug trade. We buy all the opium. We can burn it if we want or make it into medical products. My point is that we have to control the trade and make the locals rich and keep the money for us to hand out to whom we please.
They key to the hearts and minds of the people is not to have them like us but to have them see us as useful. Once we have control of the opium, we have control of everything and everyone. We have the money. With that kind of power and with the loss of power to the warlords, we have room to move.
Now what will the Republicans say to that?
The West loses for sure if we don't get the power and this is the only way. The President loses for sure if he takes either of the other options
I would roll the dice as Alexander did who not only married the Afghan Princess but made many key locals his close associates. Some of the old guard were pissed. But they had to take it for the alternative was defeat and dishonor.
