The Political Forecasting Unit 'polling tracker' has the Conservatives on 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 30 per cent and Labour on 27 per cent.
Assuming a uniform national swing, the Conservatives would win 262 seats in the House of Commons, Labour would win 256 seats, and the Liberal Democrats 101 seats.
This would leave the Conservatives 64 short of an overall majority. The markets agree that no one party is likely to win a majority in the House of Commons.
The polling tracker is based on recent surveys by different polling organisations, and is adjusted so that the more recent the survey the more weight is attached to the vote shares.
There is also some statistical smoothing which has the effect that outliers or vote shares that diverge most from the general consensus are allocated less weight.
Applying a more sophisticated seats projection methodology, termed ANS (Adjusted National Swing), which allows for the differential impact of swing on different seats, the Political Forecasting Unit projects the following scenario if the election were held today:
Conservatives: 275 seats;
Labour: 234 seats;
Liberal Democrat: 106 seats;
Others: 35 seats;
Here are the current polling results for the UK election. Now look at the seats that such a result would drive. Doesn't make any sense does it?
In Canada we have the same situation with three parties and an emergent Green Party. But the system tends to give the party with a lead a majority when in fact most of the country wants something else.
The result is that I think we lose faith in the system. The irony for me is that when out of power all want PR but in power the party does not.
Maybe in the UK there will be enough "out" to vote PR in?
But that will lead to chaos, many say. What we need is decisive government!
I don't think so. The truth is that we live in a very complex time where the answers are not clear. Where in fact the questions are not even clear. Take immigration in the US as an example.
The simple answer is get rid of the illegals. OK so who is up for deporting 11 - 14 million people? What would that mean? Mean not only to those that are on the "Transport" but to the economy - who will pluck your chickens, make your hotel bed, drive your cab? But also to the ethos of America? To simply deport illegals will demand that the nation become like Germany in the Nazi regime where race will drove everything? But then what about the illegals - can they just stay? What does that mean too?
There is no simple answer. Certainly no answer that is like the one that the Governor of Arizona juist made into law - the Nazi/Race/ID Wear a Star solution.
These are tough calls where party discipline is in fact bad for all of us. Look at the issue of Financial Reform. It is being seen politically as have it or not. Look at health care. Our 2 party system is gridlocked allowing only simplistic questions and answers to complex problems.
Far from being chaotic - PR may allow us to finally have the quality of debate that is demanded by our times.
