Robert Paterson's Weblog

What do PM Harper, PM Morsi, Gov Perry & PM Erdogan all have in common?

They all are very religious.

This religiosity is expressed in their self assurance that God is on their side and that what they believe is not only a good idea but is THE only idea. It means that those who do not support them are bad people. It means that even a slight majority is a sign of God's will to enable them to give the ungodly the right things. It means that any compromise is a sin.

What they therefore also have in common is that they use the ballot box as an excuse. Once elected, they have a duty to impose God's will. They have a duty to engineer the right electoral result.

It means that they are hijacking the ideals of democracy.

What is happening as a consequence is that the mass of people who do not hear God talking to them, are getting pissed off.

So far in the US this has lead only to a filibuster. In Canada, only to sad attempts to use the law. 

But in Turkey and in Egypt the less religious are revolting. It is no longer a given that the nation state will end up as a theocracy. In both nations the Army will likely step in - ironically to save democracy.

On this anniversary of Gettysburg, the cultural divide in the US is as stark as it was at the beginning of the civil war. The irony is that the Founding Fathers had looked at 200 years of religious war in Europe as their reason for removing religion from the political process.

How long will the non religious in the US stand by? As I have said before, in the US the Religious, or Traditionals, have aligned themselves with the Corporate Elite. In the US they have used "terror" as the excuse to create the power of a police state.

In the US this has meant that most of the forces of innovation have been shut down. It has meant that issues like climate change have not been acted upon. 

Canada has been transformed in 10 years from being a beacon of good global citizenship to being a lap dog of the corporate elite.

There are powerful forces in play.

Will the "Sleeper Awake" in the US and in Canada?

My sense is that what is going on in Turkey and Egypt will have a global impact. More and more people will see the irony in the US and in Canada.

 

 

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Turkey, Brazil, Prism - what is going on? Cultural Global Civil War

Turkey, Brazil, Prism - what is going on? Cultural Global Civil War

Marko Djurica/Reuters

I am sure that you , like me, have been wondering what is going on as seemingly small issues such as bus pass prices or a development project seem to spark such massive social movements. 

As I walked the dog this morning it was what filled my mind.

Might it be that many many people have lost faith with the idea and the practice of government?

They don't want Bread and Circuses as in Brazil. They want government to do what government used to do - operate good schools and healthcare.The government seems bought off by FIFA and the IOC and the developers. The government fails most of the people. 

They don't want developers to rule in Turkey and urban Turks do not want a theocracy. The traditionalist government is supported by the rural vote. The urban Turks cannot go back but the rural Turks cannot go forward.

In America we also see a split between the Coasts and coastal cities and much of the old Confederacy. Neither side feels that government represents them. No single government can! Instead it seems clear to most now that the US government serves only the elite. 

I think that we are seeing a 3 way split. There is a conflict in values between the new and the old and the Elites have taken the prize.

Might it be that many nations are split in their values between "traditionalists" who look to external authority and to a growing group of people who are "participants" who need to be actors in their own lives. Who look to their internal locus of control?

I see these groups in every nation.  The traditionalists all want the same thing. So do the Participants. The problem is that they are locked into one nation and so into great conflict. This feels to me like the time of the Reformation. There was no middle ground for those who wanted the Pope to act between them and God and those that wanted to relate to God directly.

What I see that is new is the role of the elites. Then the elites themselves were split along religious lines. Now the elites are using the anger of the traditionalists to keep their power. There are no elites on the side of freedom and of self. 

Which brings me to the web and to Prism and the NSA.

The great force that is driving the new reformation is surely the web. It is the fire than fuels the new. It is where each of us can find out what we need and to connect to others like us. It is like when Luther translated the Bible into German. It was why Printers were burned at the stake. The Traditionalist do not want people to form their own views.

The elite has launched the Inquisition. They have used Terror as their excuse and to get the Traditionalists onside.

So how do Traditionalists define "terror"? It is surely any person that does not take the party line. It will be anyone who objects to the Elite and how they run things. Don't like the pipeline, you are a terrorist. Offer unpasteurized milk, you are a terrorist. Don't like the banks, you are a terrorist.

THIS is why what is going on in the US is so dangerous. The Traditionalists have been weak on the web. They cannot use it for themselves. But they can and are now controlling it.

I don't know how this will turn out but I do know my history. We are seeing a schism in human society that can only get worse I fear. People die and kill for these deep beliefs.

So far the Participants have been naive. There is no naivety on the other side. The Elites know who their enemies are and they know that this is a life and death conflict.

The End of the Republic? The Billionaires take over control of the money

The Roman Republic fell into civil war and then into an autocratic empire when the big money took control of the politcal process. The Big Money has taken control of the process in the US.

A full report in the NYT here

They will own the President and the House and so they will own the system and malke it even more their own. This is not a good thing for the 99%

1914 all over again? Will the US react to outrage like Austria?

A series of policy blunders and threats struck the spark in 1914 that unleashed a world changing war.

The Austrians wanted to show that they were strong and wanted to punish the Serbs. 

Once again, a nationalist/religious movement in the Middle East is provoking a world power that is feeling put upon. It is a sensitive time. The Middle East is a Tinder Box.Not only as a result of the Arab Spring and Syria but the desire by many to hit Iran before Iran is a nuclear power. 

It is a sensitive time. It is an election year in America. It is a close election. Americans feel that people don't respect them anymore. It will be easy to lean into this feeling of national frustration.

As back in 1914, our experience of war has since 1945 been local and small. America has only been involved in very expensive colonial wars where most of the pain has been felt by the other side and by the military. Americans have no idea of what a real conflict might be like. 

Just as the European Powers felt in 1914. 

What is at stake is life as we know it. For if the Middle East rose in arms in reaction to a mistep by America, not only would the oil that we depend on go but, be sure, war would come to America. 

This is not a time for bluster. We stand on the edge of a precipice as our grand parents did. If we make a mistake, we will all lose everything. And America, will lose the most.

If I was Doug Currie - Taxes - Incentives - Politics #healthcare

At the heart of solving the Fiscal Health Problem on PEI is the health of Islanders and the political power of the public sector unions. 

It will be in helping Islanders make better decisions about their own health. It will be in creating the conditions where dramatic changes to the system can be made.

It will be in being politically very smart. There is no room for mistakes on taxes or spending.

So if I was Doug Currie I would work very closely with Wes Sheridan and the Premier.

Already some recent tax choices are weakening everything that will have to be done.

It makes no sense to make it cheaper to go and watch a game than to go to a gym and work out. 

It makes no sense to make golf fees less when golf is a sport for the well healed and make health advice expensive. 

We are already in a zone here where it is clear that there is no plan. Is revenue talking with Health? It does not look like it is. Health now drives our future. Get it wrong and the government and PEI has none. So how things affect health and the system must drive policy - all policy.

The tax code will be a critical device in shaping a new lifestyle on PEI. Every single thing that is done with taxes will have to be judged by the lifestyle impact.

At some point all provinces are going to have to use the tax code to shift our addiction to highly processed food. I don't just mean a Pop tax - but an entire tax strategy. What will we incent and what to make more expensive? All will have to be thought through.

So if I was Doug Currie, one of the things I would do is to work on the 5th floor for a long term tax and lifestyle plan. This has to be ready soon. The HST will  focus all minds on tax - this is not the time to be casual.

Every spending decision that is taken by government will also be seen soon in the health context. The government will be judged on its own choices. You cannot tell Islanders that there is no money for things they are attached to and then spend money on things that they don't want. They see that you are making a choice and you will lose or gain political capital accordingly.

This is why Plan B is a suicidal idea. It involves a lot of money and few if any voters want it. For in this mandate there will have to be major cuts to how health care is now delivered. I anticipate that the small hospitals will have to go. If all this money has been spent on a road, there will be no mercy from Islanders.

This is also why a pay raise for MLA's is suicide. There will be a loss in professional health care jobs. It's inevitable. The government sets itself up for a repeat of the 7% debacle if MLA's get a free ride. If MLA's are seen to put themselves then ALL politicians will suffer here. 

Islanders have to see that their elected leaders are in the same boat as they. Only then will they give politicians the room to make tough calls and also survive politically.

We really have a chance to make PEI viable. But not thinking ahead and not having a framework for tax and spending will doom us all to failure.

Health Costs on PEI - If I was Doug Currie I would..

The minister made a long announcement yesterday. It could seem like a survey of what was being done to offer Islanders the best health care possible for such a small place. 

But lost to many journalists who focused on the details of some cuts and services were 3 big messages. You had to hear the code.

1. PEI is at the limits of what we can afford to pay for health care. 
2. In spite of all that we have spent Islanders are getting less healthy.
3. We have to find a new way

So not in the news is the sub text that Doug Currie was offering us all in code: as we get older and we get more sick we will bankrupt the province AND we will not be any less ill. All of this will happen in the next 10 years.

So he implied, we have to rethink the entire idea. It will not be enough to get more efficient - though that is good too.

He put on the table that we have to have a game changer. Only a game changer will head off the impossible burden of the demands of an aging population and our chronic illness epidemic.

And this is why he is going out to all Islanders to have conversations.

This is why there were really not cuts of any size this time. Doug has to do the hard work of working to change how Islanders see themselves and their health.

For to try a game changer, Doug has to get some support from us. If he did this on his own, he would have to fail. If he does nothing, he knows he will fail. This is hs and our only chance. It's not about what party you support. We get this right now, or there is no next time.

Here then is what he has to change - how we see the system and us.

At the moment, most Islanders see their health as being Doug Currie and the system's responsibility. "When I am ill" You fix me. When I am old, you look after me. With so few young and tax payers, this cannot be our future.

Most health professionals are tied into what they do now and will hate any changes. They see their future as needing to get more of the old. They do not want any change in their world. They have a lot of power, because we think that they are gods.

So if I was Doug preparing to cross the Island I would prepare like this:

My objective - To be resolute in sharing  with Islanders and Health Professionals that trying to fix us when we are ill with Diabetes etc is off the table. That we will indeed go bust in no more than 10 years if we don't rethink this. 

We have to defeat chronic illness.

That we have to find ways of helping us to eat differently and to take charge of our health. No small task!

Telling will not work. I would design a process where people had to work with the numbers and see how they fit as people. 

I would design a process that showed hope too. Share Stories of people who have taken charge of their health and pulled back from chronic illness. There are a number of Islanders that have done this - SHOW THAT WHILE HARD THIS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

I would have to influence the system as well. For most health professionals are tied to fixing you when you are ill and nearly all offer the pill versus a change in lifestyle. Or worse offer advice that will make you more ill. telling will not work here either.

There is a large body of health professionals and scientists out there who know all about what our health professionals should know. Bring them here and have conferences for the professionals. A core of the system has to get this too.

This process has to be peer to peer. Islanders to Islanders. Health Professional with Health pros. We don't hear outsiders.

What the process must not be - A lecture tour or a venting platform where people just complain and want their old ways back.

So in summary, if I was Doug Currie I would design a truly interactive tour that would be based on peers and that would offer scenarios for people and health pros that would enable them to struggle with the issues themselves.

With luck, he may have 25% of Islanders and the Pros onside - that is enough to tip the system.

This is our only chance. If we get this wrong we will go bust and we will lose our sovereignty like many nations are in Europe right now. 

When Hitler hates SOPA - You know it is bad

 

A brilliant summary of the threat that SOPA poses - funny how often humour is the best way to gain understanding - pun intended

Isn't this how the system really works?

 

The Boomers and The Fiscal Crisis - What is your plan?

The Globe have an article today that talks about the debate at the PMO about OAS. Will they extend the age of eligibility from 65 to 67? Unlike the CPP - OAS is not funded. It comes from general revenues. With so many boomers it will cost more than $100 Billion a year.

OAS offers most seniors about $500 a month. For many here on PEI it is a life saver for few have corporate or government pensions. For a couple it is food and heat.

Part of me wants to protest and the other part of me has to start to plan for this reality. For the reality is this. There will be just too many of us old folks - ESPECIALLY in Atlantic Canada.

So what can we do? Surely first of all have a conversation about why we cannot expect government to pay for health care and our pension as we expected. Look at Europe and countries like Greece who are the early birds in what will have to happen given our demographics - the deal we all signed on for that government would look after us has to be broken.

I feel that the wrong use of my energy is only protest. My real need to is fill the gap that will take place.

This is why my first move has been to get control of my health. To go from a pre diabetic 60 year old weighing 205 with a lot of visceral fat, knees that are giving out and early arthritis to a 61 year old weighing 165 lbs. No visceral fat, knees back in good working or and no signs of arthritis. I am now set to be fit and active for the rest of my life. For as we all know - without our health we can do nothing. I also can avoid being a burden to Robin and my kids.

The next move is harder to pull off - but I think that many of us will have to go here. It is to live once more in a the full extended family setting. Where at the core there is a deal. we the old ones do most of the heavy lifting with our grand kids - maybe home-school - certainly carry a lot of the rearing part. Where we save by being able to share big ticket resources such as cars, appliances taxes etc. Where by having such a job, we remain actively employed with a real purpose and a need to care and get up every day.

This is hard because we have all placed independence so highly - we have lost the cultural norms of how to do this well - how to be close yet apart.

But I cannot see another way of getting through the next 25 years. I have no pension to speak of but decent savings - but not enough to make it on our own. Our kids are fully stretched just coping with work and kids as most young couples are. We have capital but less of a chance to earn an income. They have no capital but good earning power. The kids suck all their income up. There is a deal in here somewhere.

So what about you? Will you depend on the health care system to fix you when you are ill? Do they get you well today even when you are ill? Can you afford to have a chronic illness?

Do you have a pension? Can you really rely on this over the next 25 years? Look at the Nortel example. Look at what governments are being forced to do to pensioners.

Are you like me and have no pension? Do you have a lot of savings? If so good but what are they invested in? Is even money a safe bet over the next 25 years. Look at the many countries where the currency has collapsed in value.

What if you have small or no savings and no pension? What is your plan? Can you trust that government will look after you? Look at the numbers - they cannot. They will tell you that they can - if they told the truth, you would vote them out! but In your heart you know they cannot make up the gap.

Over the last 4 million years humans have developed a very good organization for coping with uncertain times. It is called the Family or the Tribe. 

I think that we can do well to explore how to bring this back for each of us - for I know no other way that I have any chance of making it without them. 

Tell me why I am wrong!

 

When I'm 64? The Squeeze - The "Impossible Bills" to pay as we get older

We are entering a new age in all sorts of ways. One of the new things that we don't talk about much is what it will mean when most people are over the age of 60.

Our world has been designed and constructed around a normal of most people being young. That is most people being able to absorb higher costs. Over the next 30 years, we will face the opposite. As each year passes, more and more of us will not be able to pay more. We old folks will not have the money. We will have less and less and no where to go to get more. And there will be more and more of us.

We have not talked much about what the world will be like when most of us are old and poor. We have to. And we have to now.

The first boomers are 65 this year. PEI is very exposed. We will have one of the most age skewed populations in Canada. So what does this mean for you and for me?

Do you have a generous pension? I don't. Most don't. If you have one, do you really think it is secure? We can see right now in places like Greece where pensions are being cut. We have seen here that corporate pensions are not safe - Nortel. If you get a Government Pension today - how safe will it be when most other people have nothing?

How much money will you have per year for the next 30 years? At my best possible calculation for me it is in the poverty bracket. What about you? How much a month will you have over the next 30 years? Scary isn't it!

So we are entering a time when the basic assumption that next year there can and will be more money is off the table. But how the system works is based on the idea that there will be more money next year. So with the old assumptions, we are on track for a squeeze and then a collision.

How will I pay my property taxes, my heating bills, look after my health and have enough to eat. How will you? This is how I see these things:

Property taxes - They are 10% of my gross income right now. They are among the largest bills I have to pay. Unlike any other bill, if I don't pay them, I can be evicted from my home. This is the one bill that can make you and I homeless. 

Cities themselves know how damaging these taxes are but have no other source of income. They are systemically starved by the higher levels of government.

In 10 years time, the majority of home owners will be pensioners. Their only asset will be their home. Can we still have a system that taxes people who will have so little cash in a way that drives them onto the street? What then?

I have not a clue what to do here -I do see this as being an "Impossible Bill" to pay. It would not be hard to see my property tax double in 10 years. It would be impossible for me to pay. It would be impossible for any senior to pay.

There has to be a new way to support our cities and not destroy our society. Time now to start talking about this.

Health Costs - As we get older our health costs go up. It is not unusual to spend $500 a month on drugs now if you have had a heart attack. At least 30% of adult Islanders will have type 2 diabetes. If you get this, you will have massive health risks and costs. About 40% of us will get cancer. The list goes on.

When most of us were young, we did not pay attention to this. Hey the system would pay. But in 4 years time, the PEI health budget will exceed our total tax revenues. The health care system will not be able to pay. Nor will you.

We cannot continue as if we did not live in a new time with new rules.

What happens when we are really old? -Worse, when we get to a certain stage, we cannot look after ourselves on our own. The current normal is that we go to a "home". Well my mum is in such a place. It costs about $40,000 a year after tax to keep her there. Fortunately she has a great pension from my late father. But few of us will have that. And even for her, with the world going as it is - is her pension a sure thing? What if she lives another 20 years? Will her pension be there? If it is not, how will I cope? I can't imagine how I would cope.

Many of us will be faced with this. The new sandwich generation of 70 year old people looking after 95 year old parents.

There will be 8,000 85 plus year old widows on PEI in 15 years time. That is a cost to PEI of $320,000,000 or half the current health budget. Stuffing us all in Manors just cannot work when there are so many of us. AND when PEI's ability to raise taxes and revenues will be so limited.

It gets worse. When we get put in an institution, our health collapses and the costs of keeping us ticking over go up exponentially. It is when we have no place in the world. So if we institutionalize the elderly, our normal now, their health care costs shoot through the roof. 

We do know though that if the elderly can stay in their home, that this does wonders for their health.

No organization knows more about this than Canada's Veterans Affairs. What VAC have found is that the longer people stay in their home the lower the costs as they remain healthy. so VAC have a program of support, meals , cleaning, yard work etc that helps the frail stay in their home. This is much less expensive and better for all. It also offers a lot of work.

So here we go in a circle. This will have to be the way. For I cannot as a 70 year old look after my paralyzed mother. I will need help if she has to come and live with me. But if paying property taxes means that I have no home..... see what I mean. 

Health Costs - The Hope - There is a way forward on health costs though. I am acting on this way ahead for myself. The chronic diseases that we all think of as normal - heart disease, cancer, arthritis, type 2 diabetes, dementia, Alzheimer's etc are not normal but are a product of our diet and how we live. In a year I have transformed my health and my aging process by eating and living differently. Aged 61, I have the health and the activity ability of a man in his healthy early 50's. I should be able to stay this way until I die.

We can PREVENT these diseases and we can age well.

My regular readers know all about this and if you are new to this - then dig into my site. 

If we do not explore this opportunity, I don't see how we can make it through the next 30 years.

Food the Hope - What such a new way of thinking will do as a consequence is drive out a new food system. Eating right will all depend on access to real food that cannot be raised in an industrial way. Instead of a few big farms, we will need thousands of small operations. Instead osfus buying most of our food in a  processed form from the supermarket, it will mean most of us buying food from local people.

This is a huge work and economic opportunity. It is a huge health opportunity too.

Energy Costs - Oil is like Property Taxes - Heating oil is up 25% this year over last. The heating bill is one of the non negotiables. Heating with oil costs Islanders about $200 million a year. That is the equivalent of a 1/4 of the total PEI tax revenue. So this is the largest family bill we pay. The average is I think about $2,500 a home.

We have no negotiating power with winter!

Helping out a few people each heating season will not work when more than 50% of Islanders will not be able to afford to heat their home. 

We have to find a structural new way. It will have to involve reducing the demand - up to 40% can be saved with better insulation etc - and by changing how we heat so we are not exposed to the global oil price. For surely in the next 30 years, where do we see oil prices going? We have to have an energy strategy that is designed to reduce demand and to cut us off from the rosk of oil prices. No easy thing but there is a lot of thought already.

Food The Risk - Nearly all the food we eat comes from away. Nearly all the food we eat depends on oil too. On oil to farm and on oil to transport. We are so exposed. Look at what has happened to poorer nations, food is all but outside the budget of a family. We have to reduce our exposure to oil and our food. This can only be done, if we grow food in a new way.

Such a way of growing food and such a shift in diet - away from annual row crops that need oil and that contribute to the health crisis - to pasture based animals and permaculture veggies will offer a huge boost to employment. It is a win win win.

My regular readers know that much work has been done to see what such a system would be like and I will not go further here.

So here then is the bottom line for all of us.

IT IS NOT BUSINESS AS USUAL. In 10 years time most of us will be over 50 and many will be close to 70. We will be on very limited and insecure budgets. Our tax system, our approach to health, our approach to food and our approach to energy has to change.

Time is so short. We have to get a lot of the new design done and in action in the next 5 years if we have any hope of making it through the next 30.

Time to start the conversation. Time to help each other and time to help our governments do the right thing.